***** Technical Analysis (May 14)*****
"Never short a dull market" probably has more meaning when each near term decline does not accelerate but rather results in a reversal rally as occurred today and yesterday. This action appears to set up another rally runup for the major indices and just about any excuse such as a good earnings report by a blue chip company or improving perceived fundamental data, could be used.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a neutral .99, with a/d of 16/15, up/down volume 1/1, on moderate volume of 1.8B shares. The major technical indicators were positive except the ROC which remains negative and the OBV which remains neutral. The RSI dropped two points to 67.6.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped to +23 but it has dropped several times to the low twenties or teens and then ran back up, which could occur once again because there is not serious selling at this time. The Summation Index is at 603 now and the 10% index is extreme. The weekly and daily stochastics remain crossed up while the hourly is 59% crossed down.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a mildly positive .87, with a/d of 15/16, up/down volume of 10/9, on light volume of 1.4B shares. The Dow daily stochastic is 81% crossed down and the hourly is 45% crossed down as the Dow is weaker than the Nasdaq.
The VIX MACD has crossed back up, a negative sign. The VXN MACD is clearly crossed up. The put/call ratio rose to .74 and its MACD is giving a neutral reading. Advisors are very bullish, a negative signal but it can be a leading indicator by a few weeks.
The Bullish Percente index is giving a caution warning to bulls but the momentum can stay bullish a little longer.
Overall, the indicators are still positive with few bearish divergences so the market may continue its upward bias until at least Dow 9043-9077 and Nasdaq 1570-1600 and SPX 965.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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