I started the Perverse Investment Candidates
(PIC) list at the beginning of 2001. It's derived
from Value Line's "Highest Growth Stocks"
list (page 39). Value Line has a "Timeliness"
rating that runs from #1 - Highest to #5 - Lowest
for rating stocks for their relative price
performance for the following 12 months.
It's my feeling that these stocks would make
great possibilities for investing using simple
timing strategy of buying when they're Timeliness #5
and selling when they get to Timeliness #1.
Many of these stocks have exhibited other traits
that would make them good AIM Management candidates.
(More info on AIM:
Message 15592776 )
I'm taking an entirely contrary view of VL's
Timeliness ratings for the PIC list. Instead of
their usual BS about only considering Timeliness
#1 stocks, I'm choosing only #5's for the PIC
list. So, each stock shown has at some time since
January 1st, 2001 been listed simultaneously as
one of VL's highest growth stocks and lowest
timeliness rating of #5. It's my opinion from
casual observation that most of the time VL's
rating method shows up late to the party and
therefore can be used as a great contrary
indicator.
Here are the stocks so far, with their starting
dates and prices:
SYMB. Start Date Start Price
ADCT 04/06/2001 $8.220
CGNX 01/01/2001 $18.000
CSC 04/09/2001 $31.900
CSCO 03/26/2001 $20.250
ERICY 02/16/2001 $9.590
SCH 04/09/2001 $15.830
SUNW 04/02/2001 $18.380
TROW 04/20/2001 $32.280
VOD 02/16/2001 $31.210
As new stocks from the VL Highest Growth Stocks
list fall to Timeliness #5 they'll be added to
this list. Should stocks get bumped off the
Highest Growth Stocks list, then I'll delete them
from the PIC list as well.
(see bottom of this note for those "delisted.")
These are candidates for study as possible
investments. They are usually very far out of
favor when they are listed and well off their
previous 52 week highs. As may be the case, they
might just fall further before gaining back any
of their previous glory. The worst case is that
they'd be "delisted" by falling off the "Highest"
list.
Here's what Value Line does to compile their list
of 100 growth stocks:
"To be included, a company's annual growth
rate of sales, cash flow, earnings, dividends and
book value must together have averaged 13% or
more over the last 10 years and be expected to
average at least 13% in the coming 3-5 years."
Always study any company carefully before
actually investing.
Best regards,
Tom Veale
-------------------------------------------
Changes to the PIC list since start....
Stock Start Start End End Gain/Loss Reason
Price Date Price Date
LEG $16.00 01/01/01 $19.75 01/12/01 +23.4% "delisted"
ADPT $8.38 01/01/01 $14.56 01/26/01 +73.9% "delisted"
VOL $20.00 01/01/01 $27.50 02/16/01 +37.5% "delisted"
T.SJR.B $30.50 03/22/01 $32.65 03/30/01 +7.0% "delisted"
MCRS $17.00 01/01/01 $18.69 04/06/01 +9.9% "delisted"
APCC $13.00 01/19/01 $15.20 04/20/01 +16.9% "delisted"
INTC $34.94 02/16/01 $32.43 04/20/01 -7.2% "delisted"
CCU $49.00 01/01/01 $61.60 04/26/01 +25.7% "delisted" |
