***** Technical Analysis (May 7)*****
A week ago Sunday at my Stocktimers AOL meeting, I went out on a limb in proposing that last week would see a possible top, or this week, at the latest, as opposed to some others who see mid-June to July as providing a top. But the bullish momentum is strong enough to prove me wrong and today's weakness was modest in nature, thus, allowing for a fairly good chance of another rally within the next few days.
The Nasdaq TRIN closed at a negative 2.22, with a/d of 13/17, which is barely negative, and up/down volume of 5/13, on moderate volume of 1.9B shares, so we did not get a heavy volume rally day today to follow-through on yesterday's moderately heavy volume rally day.
The Nasdaq MACD, DMI, CCI, Money Flow, Acc/Dist and Aroon remain positive while the Williams%R worsened to just barely negative. The RSI dropped to 67 from 72.7, and the ROC is negative.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator declined to +31 from +46, but it may be just a breather before another rally as it is quite a distance from a zero reading. The daily and hourly stochastics have both finally crossed down while the weekly and monthly remain crossed up.
The NYSE TRIN closed at a negative 1.32, with a/d of 15/17, up/down volume 2/3, on 1.5B shares. The McClellan Oscillator declined to +34 from +49. The daily stochastic is going sideways, uncrossed, and the hourly is crossed down at 40%.
The VIX and VXN MACDs are both crossed up, indicating that we may be in a topping formation, but we need to see their MACDs to form a major up trend and to stay crossed. The put/call ratio was unchanged at .91 and its 50 dma rose to .79.
The RSI, 10% indexes, and DMI's +DI/-DI reached extreme levels this week, while the ROC did give us a negative divergence reading. But the bulls will not give up the momentum easily and the question is whether we will see just a correction (and then a rally to higher highs) or a long term reversal back down starting in near future. And there is always a chance of a higher high but then a topping formation up there followed by a major multi-month decline.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
NEW TIME Announcement: Dr.Bob hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights to discuss the end of week Market Analyses, especially Technical Analysis, at AOLs private chat room, from 6-7 pm PST. The Stocktimers AOL meeting is in the private chat room. Or you may Instant Message Drbob512 to locate him.
|
