***** Technical Analysis (April 29)****
The market fell this week until Friday when a fairly impressive rally occurred because the volume was 2.1B/2.4B shares for the Nasdaq/NYSE, respectively. Follow-through on Monday is needed to possibly confirm that a tradable bottom has occurred. The market has been extremely choppy in the last week or two so Monday's action will be a signal.
The Summation chart below is possibly signalling a bottom is near or has occurred:
stockcharts.com[s,a]daclyyay[df][pc50!c35][vc60]&pref=G
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator is still slightly negative but improved enough to turn positive if Monday breadth is positive, and its 10% index is diverging from the index price, a bullish sign. The Summation Index finally got close to -1000, an area that frequently marks a bottom.
The NYSE Oscillator turned slightly positive today while the Summation never got below -500, so the NYSE may rally more than the Nasdaq if there is a technical rally soon.
Bullish divergences can be seen in the Nasdaq daily:
RSI MACD CCI DMI Aroon StochRSI ULT and daily stochastics
The weekly stochastic is still crossed down so another decline is possible, but the k and d indicate a bottom may be near. The monthly stochastic is crossed down and indicates that we are at least 2-3 quarters from a low and crossover back up.
Hourly and daily stochastics indicate a rally is possible anytime.
Spot crude oil finally closed below 50/barrel and now could make a choppy decline to 46 support in the next 1-2 weeks, as it is working off the double top at 56-58. Energy stocks have mixed chart patterns and have finally had a large correction. Large caps have had a 15-20% correction while most microcaps have had larger ones and many microcaps have fallen apart to their lows of last year.
The USD has been in a range between 82-85 for several weeks now and closed at 84. Long term rates have fallen back down, possibly indicating a major economic slowdown or recession is coming in the next year.
Spot gold has held in its bullish trend channel but gold stocks have lagged badly, indicating further weakness is ahead before a resumption of the gold stock bull market.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL. |
