What's up? My name is Ted, or "gem-x".
I'm creating this message board for people who are fascinated by the amazing predictive powers of the Elliott Wave Principle. I'm sure there are quite a few who are interested in it, but I'm trying to find them. I'm sure Silicon Investor is the best place to find you guys! I hope there are traders I can meet who have great (although expensive) Elliott Wave programs who'd like to delve into this topic. (I hate Wave 2's and Wave B's!!!) If I can get a handful of people involved on this board, we can get cookin.
I use the Elliott Wave primarily for the stock market, but also for sports cards. (There's an amazing web site called thePit.com where the highly volatile market of sports cards can be traded like the stock market.) I'm also an expert in the wild world of sports card investing (crazier than the NASDAQ), the weird world of eBay, and a recognized musician worldwide who tapped into too many Tim Leary books.
Anyway, if you're looking to discuss the Elliott Wave, and are looking for good strong Elliott Wave forecasts, this is the place to be!
Also GO LAKERS!!!
****I will update my forecasts daily, but post REAL TIME opinions using intraday Elliott Wave forecasts, minute by minute. Fearful? Greedy? Just post here, and I'll give you my opinion. Remember, that's an "OPINION."****
Shameless plug of my web sites:
members.ebay.com
gemx.iuma.com
gem-x.org
Thursday, June 14, 2001
Possible scenarios for tomorrow:
We're now in Wave C of the A-B-C corrective wave of the bigger A-B-C corrective wave, on the fast track to the 1974-2000 level, and looking at the COMP charts for the past few trading days, I'm looking at these possible scenarios. The wave down today has to be corrected at some point tomorrow, be it big or small.
There's one more wave left from today's wave, and the length is possibly 20-25 points.
Scenario 1.) 20-25 point gap down to 2100, and a dead cat bounce to as high as 2136 to 2146, than a follow through sell off to end the day, in the 2020-2057 range, a gap down on Friday to 1974, with a possible large rally.
Scenario 2.) Gap up open straight to 2146, than a zizag drop down to the 2020-2057 range, gap down on Friday to 1974, than rally.
Scenario 3.) Large gap down, 40-50 points, with no follow through dead cat bounce until 2:30-4:00.
All in all, the path of least resistence is down, and the 1974-2000 level has to be tested no matter what.
If you look at the action today, it looked a lot like everyone is fully invested, and watching, which is a bad sign of complacency. (Sell off was on low volume) The VIX and VXN have to spike up, and real fear has to take over in order for the market to move higher. When people are fully invested, there's no buyers, and no one to sell to, which prevents a strong advance to occur. But, this corrective action is not indicative of a bear market bounce. I believe we are in a new bull market (hurrah!), and once this ugly Wave 2 corrective wave ends, Wave 3 starts. Wave 3's are BEAUTIFUL bullish waves, the longest, and broadest advances in all bull markets. Breakaway gaps that never fill, shorts getting stopped out on a daily basis, and large, large rallies that never lose their legs. Once this correcting and backing and filling ends, the Wave 3 starts, and boy will it be exciting. So basically, the market has to suck it up for another week or two to rid of this complacent sentiment. Wave 1 was huge, a nice 709 point rally off the lows, and Wave 3's are usually 1.618 to 1.75X the length of wave 1, which means we could be looking at a 1100-1300 point rally once this crap ends..
No sh*t. (smile longs)
Here's my first forecast, so dig in.
Tuesday June 12, 2001
Today was Wave B in the correction to 1975-2020. Beware.
What's up? I just joined Silicon Investor, and have been lurking for a while, and finally decided to get the premium membership.
I post all over the Yahoo Message Boards, esp. the BRCD message boards giving my technical analysis (have been pretty accurate) using the Elliott Wave Principle, Fibonacci and only rarely using other indicators like MACD, but I emphasize Elliott Wave, chart formations like triangles, head and shoulders, etc, and Fibonacci. I'm glad I'm finally in the company of real deal traders instead of annoying mindless emotional shorts and hypsters on those wild boards.
Let's get to business. Here are my opinions..
Anyway, it looks like the NASDAQ is in a final Wave 2 zizag move down to correct Wave 1 of the first bullish wave (from 1619 to 2328). A 5-3-5 wave it looks like. The first 5 waves corrected (Wave A) from 2328 to 2077 (Wave 2 corrections 75%-80% of the time are at least .500 to .618 retracements, and 2077 was a measly .333/.382), than we got the Wave B bounce, on light unconvincing volume from 2077 to 2264, and we're now in Wave C, which might be swift and violent, maybe even undercutting 2000 to 1974 (.500 Fibonacci retrace of 1619 to 2328). The action today appears to be Wave B of the bigger Wave C. Why do I say this? Because we cut right through the .618 Fib retracement of 2077-2264 like butter to 2105, and even though we got a nice 79-80 point bounce off the lows, it was barely a .500 fib retrace of 2264 - 2105. That's a Wave B. And Wave C could be completed this week and shocking fashion to 1975, but a violent bounce could occur if it touches that level. There's too much complacency.
CNBC turned into hypsters with feelings of invinciblity today (Jim Cramer especially, Mr. ALCOA).
One chart I've been looking at is the Nikkei, and the Nikkei has been cutting through crucial support levels, and the NASDAQ may not be far behind.
I think the max pain for this week is 1975, so I've gone short after being long during the Wave B bounce to 2264.
Charts of note:
JNPR has one brutal looking chart, and the bounce today, although pretty decent was not even close to reaching a .333 fib retrace. The close looked like it was on the verge of forming a head and shoulders, and we've only got 3 waves of 5 waves. There's more downside, potentially to the 23-25 range.
I'm a big fan of BRCD, short and long, and it appears that today it had a double top formation (47.99 and 47.87), it could drop as low as 40.35 this week.
Good luck this week.
Ted Aguhob
www.gem-x.org
***IMPORTANT NUMBERS/SUPPORT/RESISTENCE/FIB***
Wave 2 corrective wave for Wave 1 (1619-2328)
.382 Fibonacci retracement = 2057
.500 Fibonacci retracement = 1973.5
.618 Fibonacci retracement = 1890
Watch those levels this week. |
