***** Technical Analysis (June 26)*****
The Nasdaq carved out a good gain today on light volume while the other indices made more modest gains. Some of the technical indicators improved to neutral such as the Williams%R and Acc/Dist but the majority of them are still weaker now than a couple of weeks ago.
The McClellan Oscillators remain in negative territory and if they move to but not above the zero line on this light volume rally, that could be bearish. We shall see if this rally picks up steam in terms of volume.
While Wall Street analysts remain very bullish for the rest of the year and beyond now, I am skeptical from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Also, the sentiment indicators are not looking positive.
It would not surprise me to see the Dow/Nasdaq to retest their 9350/1685 levels in the first half of July, but a lower high on the Summation, RSI, MACD, Acc/Dist, ROC, OBV and weekly stochastics could seal the fate for this market, as bearish divergences in any quantity would portend a trend reversal.
Odds favor the next rally to be accompanied by many divergences and light volume, and if so, not only could we see a correction, but a harbinger of the next impulse wave down to this secular bear market.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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