*****Announcement *****
The planned Las Vegas trip has had to be concelled due to circumstances beyond my control.
Please share ideas on when we might re-schedule the meeting, such as during the week or weekend, and during an Investment Seminar/Conference or not, and other ideas.
Thank you for your understanding.
***** Technical Analysis (week ending July 9)****
The markets were down this past week with most of the internals and technical indicators weaker. The Nasdaq continues with its "cross of death," and it has now been confirmed by stochastics, Summation Index, MACD, but one of the two moving averages is moving down now. If the 200 dma starts down, it will portend a major move downward in the months to come if not 1-2 years.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator declined for the week to -25 from +8, and the Summation fell to -221, reversing back down before reaching the zero line, a negative sign.
The Nasdaq monthly stochastic worsened to 77% and crossed down for the first time in more than a year. The weekly declined to 35% crossed down, daily worsened to 9% crossed down and the "d" is still high enough, allowing for more weakness in the next 3-7 days. The RSI fell to 41 and is now also negative.
The MACD, Williams%R, CCI, DMI (ADX), Money Flow and Acc/Dist worsened to negative, while the Aroon worsened to neutral.
The Dow monthly stochastic declined to 83% uncrossed now for the first time in many months, weekly declined to 40% crossed down, daily declined to 14% crossed down, hourly rose to 45% crossed up. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator declined to +9, and a reversal would be very negative technically. The Summation rose to +537. The Dow has resistance at 10,570 and 10,750 and it has failed to take out 10,570, which is negative as well.
The market bounced up today but it was not impressive in terms of the internals or overall volume which was 1.4B/1.2B shares for the Nasdaq/NYSE, respectively. An oversold bounce needs to gain strength by Monday or Tuesday or risk accelerating the downtrend we've seen for the past few weeks.
Chart patterns and indicators have worsened technically and may indicate that we've seen a complex topping formation since January that will lead to a major move down in the months to come. Perhaps we will see a 10-15% decline by October and then a late year rally to be followed by another decline early next year, as the Kondratieff Winter continues for stocks, and expands to bonds and real estate.
Bearish divergences two weeks ago portended the current weakness and the "cross of death" on the Nasdaq may be joined by the Dow if next week is down, a sobering possibility for those who are long stocks.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL. |
