The board will discuss aspects of the epic American credit and bond bubble and it's ramifications for investors. Emphasis will be on how to profit from (or at least survive) a bond bear market and/or a credit collapse. Basic entry prerequistes to take this lab: 1. the knowledge that bond prices move inversely to interest rates. 2. an understanding that bonds can lose value if credit conditions deteriorate.
Food for thought:
"A sound banker, alas, is not one who forsees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him".
- John Maynard Keynes
Lab tools:
Terrific economic data base and graphic capacity:
economagic.com
Key measure of cheap loosey goosey easy credit to consumers; mortgage application index, purchase index, refi index, out every Wed. I'm looking for a chart/graphic:
mbaa.org
Fed repurchase pool:
bullandbearwise.com
Some original thinking on how fed repos impact markets:
financialsense.com
Federal Reserve flow of funds data:
federalreserve.gov
Bureau of Economic Analysis:
bea.doc.gov
Federal Reserve Economic Data: St. Louis Fed
research.stlouisfed.org
Moody's credit "analysis" and rating changes:
moodys.com
Bond Market Asso.;data and reporting on the credit markets:
bondmarkets.com
National Asso. of Realtors; housing bubble data:
realtor.org
Futures markets:
www2.barchart.com
Yields, spreads, curves, and for a good time call, etc:
bonds-online.com
Committment of traders (COT) reports:
commitmentsoftraders.com
Prudent Bear commentaries; key on Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin (updated weekends), Marshall Auerback, and Richard Duncan:
prudentbear.com
Richard Duncan's extraordinary new book, "The Dollar Crisis". Take anti-nausea pills and skip lunch before reading:
amazon.com
Financial Sense Online (Jim Puplava), some very good weekend interviews and links to other sites:
netcastdaily.com
Excellent commentary and graphics from Contrary Investor:
contraryinvestor.com
Pimco bonds:
pimco.com
Given that US energy and ag policy seems to be primarily to pray for warm winters, cool summers, and perfect growing conditions, good idea to check the weather:
deere.com |
