*****Announcement *****
The planned Las Vegas trip has had to be concelled due to circumstances beyond my control.
Please share ideas on when we might re-schedule the meeting, such as during the week or weekend, and during an Investment Seminar/Conference or not, and other ideas.
Thank you for your understanding.
***** Technical Analysis (week ending July 16)****
The markets were down this past week with most of the internals and technical indicators continuing to be weak. The Nasdaq continues with its "cross of death," and it has been confirmed by stochastics, Summation Index, and MACD, and now the two moving averages are moving down. A major move down is now portended in the months to come.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator declined for the week to -40 from -25, and the Summation fell to -337, reversing back down before reaching the zero line, a very negative sign.
The Nasdaq monthly stochastic worsened to 70%, crossed down. The weekly declined to 8% crossed down, daily worsened to 0% crossed down and the "d" is still high enough, allowing for more weakness in the next 2-5 sessions. The RSI fell to 30.5 and is decidedly bearish but can go lower after any technical resetting bounce.
The MACD, Williams%R, CCI, DMI (ADX), Money Flow and Acc/Dist remain negative, while the Aroon remained neutral.
The Dow monthly stochastic declined to 81% uncrossed, weekly declined to 34% crossed down, daily declined to 1% crossed down, hourly declined to rose to 5% crossed down. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator declined to +3, and a reversal would be very negative technically. The Summation rose to +571 but is losing momentum. The Dow has now failed to take out resistance at 10,570 and is threatening to suffer its own "cross of death."
Chart patterns and indicators have continued to worsen technically and may indicate that we've seen a complex topping formation since January that will lead to a major move down in the months to come. Perhaps we will see a 10-15% decline by September-October and then a late year rally to be followed by another decline early next year, as the Kondratieff Winter continues for stocks, and expands to bonds (temporarily, before deflation occurs in earnest) and real estate.
Bearish divergences three weeks ago portended the current weakness and the "cross of death" on the Nasdaq may be joined by the Dow if next week is down, a sobering possibility for those who are long stocks.
A mini-crash has already started in the Nasdaq and may be joined by the other indices in the weeks to come.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL. |
