*****Announcement *****
The planned Las Vegas trip has had to be concelled due to circumstances beyond my control.
Please share ideas on when we might re-schedule the meeting, such as during the week or weekend, and during an Investment Seminar/Conference or not, and other ideas.
Thank you for your understanding.
***** Technical Analysis (week ending July 23)****
The markets were down this past week with most of the internals and technical indicators continuing to be weak. The Nasdaq continues with its "cross of death," and it has been joined by the Dow. A major move down is now portended in the months to come, though in the near term a technical bounce is likely early this week from the current oversold condition.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator declined for the week to -51 from -40, and the Summation fell to -560, but not yet at an extreme intermediate level.
The index broke below its support at 1870 and is now going to find ressistance there and at 1900. Next support is near 1800. Dow has resistance at 10,000 and at 10,150. Support comes in at 9800 and 9600.
The Nasdaq monthly stochastic worsened to 66%, crossed down. The weekly declined to 1% crossed down, daily worsened to 1% crossed down and the "d" is still high enough, allowing for more weakness in the next 2-5 sessions.
The MACD, Williams%R, CCI, DMI (ADX), Money Flow and Acc/Dist remain negative, while the Aroon turned negative. Usually when the Aroon just turns negative, it has been after a steady decline and a technical bounce is due, before more weakness occurs.
The Dow monthly stochastic declined to 76% crossed down now, weekly declined to 13% crossed down, daily is at 5% crossed down. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator declined sharply to -48 from +3, a very bearish reversal. The Summation declined to +479 and has turned down.
Chart patterns and indicators have continued to worsen technically and may indicate that we've seen a complex topping formation since January and February that will lead to a major move down in the months to come. Perhaps we will see a 10-15% decline by September-October and then a late year rally to be followed by another decline early next year, as the Kondratieff Winter continues for stocks, and expands to bonds (temporarily, before deflation occurs in earnest) and real estate.
Bearish divergences four weeks ago portended the current weakness and the "cross of death" on the Nasdaq and the Dow is a sobering possibility for those who are long stocks.
A mini-crash has already started in the Nasdaq and may be joined by the other indices in the weeks to come.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL. |
