***** Technical Analysis (July 29)*****
The market whipsawed all day long to finally weaken in the last hour and half but the damage was minimal.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator changed by only 2, from -1 to -3, so we may see a major move within 4 sessions. The NYSE Oscillator reading remains quite negative as it has for over 3 weeks now, at -39.
The market has not been able to rally in July despite the better than expected earnings reported by most companies and the number of reportings will drop off sharply in a week or so. Another negative factor is that volume typically lessens during the late Summer and early Fall, so August, September and October can be quite weak.
On the positive side, there has been a moderate stock mutual fund inflows in the past month and half and it hasn't turned into outflows yet, but that could occur as soon as the major indices decline substantially.
The Nasdaq MACD remains negative while the others are mixed with half of them neutral and the other half positive.
Bearish divergences have been showing up as indicated by past Technical Analysis' commentaries. But the market can delay a sharp decline with a temporary rally at any time.
Gold was weak today and while still probably in an up trend, it can have a correction for a few days. Spot may yet get to $375/oz again. Bonds were weak once again and the 10 year note rate rose to near 4.4% for the first time in about a year, as bonds are experiencing one of the worst declines in some time.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL. |
