Possible scenarios tomorrow (bullish and bearish)
If my most bearish counts are correct, tomorrow could be the significant turnaround day. My bearish scenario is playing out (I hate to be a pessimist, but I too trade both sides of the market) We've gotten 4 out of the 5 C waves, and are in the 4th/5th wave of the 5th wave of Wave C. Translation: For a bullish scenario, the NASDAQ should make a wave 4 rally to 1935-1940 tomorrow morning, followed by a the last wave, wave 5 down. Tuesday had wave 1 (35 points), Wave 2 today (to 1975), and Wave 3 (56 points down, which is 1.618 X 35 point wave 1). Which means we're gonna have a test of the 1860-1908 level. The fifth wave down is usually equal to wave 1 (35 pts), but can be 1.618 (56 points) or 2.618 (92 points). I'm expecting wave down to 1908 at least (35), to 1890 (56 points which makes sense since that's the .618 retrace), to stretch things out, or 1845-1860 (92 points at worst). But since the A-B-C-X-A-B-C double zigzag/double flat, is nearing completion, there's a chance of a 200 point rally. This is as bullish as I can get, but those formations get the type of reactions for rallies....the largest drop possible, is to 1820, which would make the move down from 2328 a huge zigzag A-B-C. The absolute worst thing that could happen is the dreaded triple zigzag or triple three, which is as bad is it can get, which would easily take us below 1619, which is rare, and although economic conditions stink, they're not as bad as they were in March, or as bad as people percieved.
**Update 12:01PM**
We're ending the third wave down of the C wave's 5th wave, to approx. 1922-1926 (1.618 X Wave 1 = 35 pts), which means a bounce to around 1938-1940, which means the 5th wave should take it down to 1913-1915 min, and 1875-1885 max, and a super bearish 1840-1865.
**Update 10:24AM**
Watch the (.618 retrace of 1916 to 1998) 1946-1947 level carefully...if that level gets broken, expect a re-test of the 1916 level.
Minimum drop would be to around 1908-1909 (equal length to wave 1) and maximum would be 1840-1870 (about 1,618 X wave 1 down)
**Late night update**
Nikkei has rocketed up 3.7% on BOJ's increasing liquidity..kinda "surprise rate cut-ish"
(Side note: ...can someome invite "skinowski" to post here? Since I have a 14 day suspension I can't e-mail him. The guy is loaded with good E-Wave skills, so let me know if you can do this for me..thanks RBond)
Check out this chart of the entire A-B-C 5-3-5 zigzag correction of the NASDAQ from 5120 to 1619. This is why I believe the bear market is over. I think that the corrective wave was wave 2 of the wave from NASDAQ 1000 to NASDAQ 5120. The move from 1000 to 5120 was "the kickoff" for a new huge bull market. New bull markets kickoff huge with massive overbought levels, and the corrective waves are fast and fierce. The creation of the internet economy has massively increased productivity and innovation, and this first move is just the beginning...
geocities.com
**(Bullish) Update Possible scenarios for Aug 13, 2001**
All I gotta say is....PLEASE Wave 3 COME TO DADDY.
Another successfully accurate prediction, hopefully this streak will continue with NASDAQ doing the happy wave 3 dance for the next couple months. Right now, the NASDAQ is in the 1-2-1-2, which means we're gonna re-test the 1970-1975 level. If this is the 1-2-1-2 leading to a wave 3, the NASDAQ should re-test that level, than bounce to at LEAST 2000-2010, (equal to wave 1) or as high as 2050-2060, and break out over 2105 in the next couple days. I heard the Bulls/Bears sentiment reading was 24% Bulls and 56% Bears...the last time it got like this, was early April when Wave 1 rallied to 2328...we got a big white candlestick today after two dragonfly dojis. It appears the NASDAQ was in an expanded flat, with a 5 wave triangle on the 5th wave, which means this correction could be over. What gets to me though, is the rally today was on the 2nd lightest volume of the year, but the lightest volume occured during the morning, when the NASDAQ was in the red, and the heaviest when the market rallied...the MACD turned up big intraday as well. If those scenarios play out, there should be a break of 2105 sometime this week, and if the NASDAQ breaks 2170, than FINALLY wave 3 is here...
**Bearish update possible scenario** (I will post both bullish and bearish possible scenarios starting tonite)
From a bearish perspective, the move up from 1915 has been 3 waves, which could label it as the 4th wave in the C wave...that would mean one more wave down to the 1840-1860 level...Should the 1939-1945 level break, that would be a likely possbility. Considering the fact the the volume on this bounce has been light, and the VIX and VXN show a little complacency, it might happen. Keep this though in the back of your mind.
**Update 12:10PM**
Right now it looks like we're in the fifth wave intraday of an A-B-C zigzag. If that's the case, the NASDAQ is headed towards the 1940-1945 level, and a rally should ensue. But if those levels get cracked hard, look for the "dump". But buying interest looks strong, so watch those levels, and look for that rally at the 1940-1945 test.
**UPDATE: My prediciton happened again, but watch these levels on the DOW" 10440 (618 retrace) and NASDAQ just broke 1946..
**Update Aug 11, 2001**
Possible scenarios for next week, TA with Elliott Wave.
Contrary to what the pundits on CNBC say for Friday, I believe the drop to 1915 and the bounce was significant.
The bounce came off of a very oversold MACD, lower Bollinger band, and there's been two consecutive days with 2 dragonfly dojis...I've looked at the candlestick charts for the past year (yeah it's hard) and haven't found ONE dragonfly doji, or even two consecutive dragonfly dojis.
Here's the definition of it:
"Dragon-fly doji. This line also signifies a turning point. It occurs when the open and close are the same, and the low is significantly lower than the open, high, and closing prices."
When there are dragonfly dojis, it represents a turning point after a prolonged downtrend or uptrend...in this case a 4 month downtrend. There was two of them on two consecutive days.
What I'm expecting next week, could be the start of wave 3, ONLY if this scenario develops..
A retrace of the bounce from 1915 to 1967, to the 1940-1942 level, than a follow through to the 2000-2020 level at the very least, and a rally to 2105+. Than a retrace to 2000 that HOLDS and bounces above 2105, targeting the 2170 level (.618 bounce from 2328 to 1915). The two levels of importance on the upside are 2105 (upper bollinger band) and 2170. The DOW is within 25-30 points of starting a new bullish uptrend, with 10440 being the important resistence level (.618 retrace of 10620 to 10197). The bounce of 250+ points on the DOW last Friday was pretty large, and on Thursday, it had a dragonfly doji. (Some may say a hammer)
If the 1934-1942 level doesn't hold, than there's gonna be one more wave down, going down as far as 1840-1860. (Which would turn the correction into a double three...double zigzag or a zigzag and a flat).
But the fact that there were those two dragonfly dojis, this could be the start of a significant reversal to the upisde, in other words, wave 3.
What's up? My name is Ted, or "gem-x".
(I'm looking for this girl named Dianalee (Dee) Campo who is in medical school at Penn State, and went to (Tri-Delt)University of MD, College Park. I need to contact her, it's important I have this torched stuff cat that's been turned into an ash tray, and it's looking for a home.)
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