**Update (after being muted)**
Ok, now it's time to take off the gloves. I'm opening that mouth again...I can literally feel the "don't listen to him he's dellusional" and the "he thinks he's some genius but he's not, I'm saying this because I have a small tweeter" and the "ha ha ha wave 3, where's the wave 3 ha ha ha" all over SI. I sure do draw a lot of attention around here, don't I. A 25 year old "kid" who has quickly mastered the most difficult form of TA in existence, in 3 months, being able to quickly identify drops and rallies like no one else literally by the milli-second (you know this is true) with a "loud immature arrogant mouth" and "deserves to be suspended and shut up when we tell him to". I dare YOU to figure out THE MOST complex wave forms in existence, namely ending diagonals or complex double zigzagz with middle X waves. Thanks to this hideously sideways market, I've been forced to learn every stinking complex and non complex corrective wave in the book. A crash course in the Elliott Wave. I've read every single page of the abstract Elliott Wave Principle book, memorized and studied every single number, thought and phrase. I'm crazy, and I admit it, but when people motivate me, I don't stop. Well, anyway, I appreciate whoever got me muted today...Anyway, enough of that. By the way, once wave 3 comes, I'll be selling "I got three fingers in the air and I'm waving them at you" gem-x T-shirts here in Los Angeles like hotcakes. But if the wave 3 never comes, and the NASDAQ crashes through 1619, and causes the end of the world, I'll shut this message board down, cancel my membership (I know you want me to), and vanish. I refuse to say that wave 3 WON'T come, because it will.
Now back to business.
Here are the three formations that I've identified on this long torturous corrective wave.
1.) This is a complex double zigzag corrective wave, which would be labeled as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. The first zigzag would be identified as 2328 to 2077 (wave a), 2077 to 2264 (wave b), 2264 to 1973.70 (Wave C), wave X is the connecting wave, which would be 1973.70 to 2180, than the second zigzag of the double zigzag would be identified as 2180 to 1934 (Wave A), 1934 to 2105 (Wave B)...wave A was 246 points, and due to Wave C's in zigzags being equal length to wave A, than Wave C should be 2105 to 1859. Yeah, we're pretty darn close to that level, but today had the major signs of a bottom - the VIX shot up as high as 15% and 27.5-27.7, the put call ratio is overwhelmingly bullish (tons of puts), the MACD didn't fall to the lows of early April, there's IRRATIONAL PESSIMISM in this market, where EVERY bit of good news is ignored (there's been TONS of good news that has been ignored, HWP had great news, and the morons sold it off) , which is the opposite of irrational exuberence, plus the volume today was extremely low considering the size of the drop. There is ALWAYS a large rally after a double zigzag is completed, but if the equality doesn't fit, than the next biggest size of wave C would be 398 points (1.618 X 246), and the NASDAQ would drop as low as 1707.
2.) Another formation that the many people on SI has been looking at the NASDAQ is the ending diagonal, or wedge.
Take a look at this graphic of a ending diagonal, and notice how it closely resembles the NASDAQ chart the past 3-4 months. elliott-wave-theory.com
Wedges that end on a downtrend ALWAYS move up after the formation completes, NOT down, contrary to what many posters on SI have been babbling about.
If this is a wedge, that would mean that the move from 1619 to 2328 was wave 4 (!!) of the big C wave, and 2328 to now would be a wave 5 wedge. That would mean the next wave up wouldn't be a measly 705-1160 points, but would retrace .500 to .618 of the wave down from 5120 to 1618, which would target the NASDAQ 3500 to 4000, Yup, you heard it here.
That would mean this wedge formation is about to end...wedges are formed when a move has gone "too far to fast"...when a wedge forms on an uptrend, a drop is inevitable and when a wedge forms on a correction, a rally is inevitable.
Wave 1 in the wedge would be 2328 to 2077, wave 2 would be 2077 to 2264, wave 3 would be 2264 to 1934, wave 4 would be 1934 to 2105, and wave 5, which would be occuring now would be 2105 to 1853-1859.
3.) The worst case scenario: In the C wave, the first wave down was 740 points from 4250, last summer. If 1619-2328 was wave 4, than wave 5 should be equal length of wave 1. That would mean a sharp retrace to the 1619-1625 level, which would form a double bottom/truncated fifth wave. But since the most likely correction wave forms are the double zigzag and the wedge, this is hardly likely. But my most bearish forecast this week actually came true, so I'm not going to deny this possibility.
What I'm guessing on Monday is a test of the 1853 to 1859 level in the morning, a 60-70 point rally going into the Fed, and than the final test wave that should be in the headlines this week....
If you don't want to listen to or read these forecasts, than DON'T BOTHER LOOKING AT THIS MESSAGE BOARD. If you got a pole stuck up your you know what, or if you're some old bitter dude who's never gotten laid, ignore me. But to go out of your way to call me some dellusional acid head punk kid, well, i hope your short this market all the way down to the 1850's. Please, I want to feel your SILENCE for a change.
Check out this chart of the entire A-B-C 5-3-5 zigzag correction of the NASDAQ from 5120 to 1619. This is why I believe the bear market is over. I think that the corrective wave was wave 2 of the wave from NASDAQ 1000 to NASDAQ 5120. The move from 1000 to 5120 was "the kickoff" for a new huge bull market. New bull markets kickoff huge with massive overbought levels, and the corrective waves are fast and fierce. The creation of the internet economy has massively increased productivity and innovation, and this first move is just the beginning...
geocities.com
**Bearish update possible scenario** (I will post both bullish and bearish possible scenarios starting tonite)
From a bearish perspective, the move up from 1915 has been 3 waves, which could label it as the 4th wave in the C wave...that would mean one more wave down to the 1840-1860 level...Should the 1939-1945 level break, that would be a likely possbility. Considering the fact the the volume on this bounce has been light, and the VIX and VXN show a little complacency, it might happen. Keep this though in the back of your mind.
**Update 12:10PM**
Right now it looks like we're in the fifth wave intraday of an A-B-C zigzag. If that's the case, the NASDAQ is headed towards the 1940-1945 level, and a rally should ensue. But if those levels get cracked hard, look for the "dump". But buying interest looks strong, so watch those levels, and look for that rally at the 1940-1945 test.
**UPDATE: My prediciton happened again, but watch these levels on the DOW" 10440 (618 retrace) and NASDAQ just broke 1946..
**Update Aug 11, 2001**
Possible scenarios for next week, TA with Elliott Wave.
Contrary to what the pundits on CNBC say for Friday, I believe the drop to 1915 and the bounce was significant.
The bounce came off of a very oversold MACD, lower Bollinger band, and there's been two consecutive days with 2 dragonfly dojis...I've looked at the candlestick charts for the past year (yeah it's hard) and haven't found ONE dragonfly doji, or even two consecutive dragonfly dojis.
Here's the definition of it:
"Dragon-fly doji. This line also signifies a turning point. It occurs when the open and close are the same, and the low is significantly lower than the open, high, and closing prices."
When there are dragonfly dojis, it represents a turning point after a prolonged downtrend or uptrend...in this case a 4 month downtrend. There was two of them on two consecutive days.
What I'm expecting next week, could be the start of wave 3, ONLY if this scenario develops..
A retrace of the bounce from 1915 to 1967, to the 1940-1942 level, than a follow through to the 2000-2020 level at the very least, and a rally to 2105+. Than a retrace to 2000 that HOLDS and bounces above 2105, targeting the 2170 level (.618 bounce from 2328 to 1915). The two levels of importance on the upside are 2105 (upper bollinger band) and 2170. The DOW is within 25-30 points of starting a new bullish uptrend, with 10440 being the important resistence level (.618 retrace of 10620 to 10197). The bounce of 250+ points on the DOW last Friday was pretty large, and on Thursday, it had a dragonfly doji. (Some may say a hammer)
If the 1934-1942 level doesn't hold, than there's gonna be one more wave down, going down as far as 1840-1860. (Which would turn the correction into a double three...double zigzag or a zigzag and a flat).
But the fact that there were those two dragonfly dojis, this could be the start of a significant reversal to the upisde, in other words, wave 3.
What's up? My name is Ted, or "gem-x".
(I'm looking for this girl named Dianalee (Dee) Campo who is in medical school at Penn State, and went to (Tri-Delt)University of MD, College Park. I need to contact her, it's important I have this torched stuff cat that's been turned into an ash tray, and it's looking for a home.)
I'm creating this message board for people who are fascinated by the amazing predictive powers of the Elliott Wave Principle. I'm sure there are quite a few who are interested in it, but I'm trying to find them. I'm sure Silicon Investor is the best place to find you guys! I hope there are traders I can meet who have great (although expensive) Elliott Wave programs who'd like to delve into this topic. (I hate Wave 2's and Wave B's!!!) If I can get a handful of people involved on this board, we can get cookin.
I use the Elliott Wave primarily for the stock market, but also for sports cards. (There's an amazing web site called thePit.com where the highly volatile market of sports cards can be traded like the stock market.) I'm also an expert in the wild world of sports card investing (crazier than the NASDAQ), the weird world of eBay, and a recognized musician worldwide who tapped into too many Tim Leary books.
Anyway, if you're looking to discuss the Elliott Wave, and are looking for good strong Elliott Wave forecasts, this is the place to be!
****I will update my forecasts daily, but post REAL TIME opinions using intraday Elliott Wave forecasts, minute by minute. Fearful? Greedy? Just post here, and I'll give you my opinion. Remember, that's an "OPINION."****
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