***** Technical Analysis (August 20)*****
The market paused today with very mild declines after having rallied pretty strongly in the past week and half, especially the Nasdaq and Dow.
The Nasdaq TRIN was a mildly negative 1.38, with a/d of 16/15, up/down volume of 3/4, indicating mild distribution, on light volume of 1.5B shares. The MACD remains decidedly positive while the Money Flow weakened to slightly positive and the Aroon improved to neutral. The RSI was virtually unchanged at 64.
The Nasdaq monthly stochastic is 65% crossed up, weekly 96% crossed up, daily 93% crossed up, and hourly 85% crossed down, so while a little more of a dip in the near term is possible, this index appears to have some more upside in the next several days. It has a very good chance of retesting the prior high of 1776, and may exceed it if the market internals are positive enough on that day.
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator dropped to +26 from +30, but its 10% index is still above the 5% index and the zero line, which is positive. The Summation rose to 232 but thus far has a series of lower highs.
The NYSE TRIN was a mildly negative 1.19, with a/d of 17/14, up/down volume 20/19, indicating neither accumulation nor distribution, and on light volume of 1.2B shares. The Dow monthly stochastic is 63% crossed up, weekly 96% going sideways, daily 89% crossed up, hourly 61% crossed down, so it is a bit less positive than the Nasdaq.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator changed by only 1 to +37, thus signalling a possible major move within a few sessions. Its Summation Index is rising at +232 and has been weaker than the Nasdaq.
The sentiment indicators are mixed with the put/call ratio negative and the VIX/VXN slightly positive on balance and the Advisors sentiment too bullish which is negative.
The possible next targets are Dow 9550, S&P 500 1015 and the Nasdaq 1776 levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq possibly exceeding those levels to 1800 and 1025. Then we shall see if the markets bearish divergences will prove out or not.
Gold stocks powered ahead again (and may get parabolic again which is increasing the risk from the long side) while bonds didn't do much. The USD has not broken down yet but it may just be a matter of time.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL. |
