***** Technical Analysis (week ending August 20)****
The market rallied most of this past week after having been extremely oversold the previous week though overall volume was light. The question is whether this is an oversold rally or a longer-lasting one that will retest the recovery highs.
The Dow appears to have some resistance at 10,250, S&P 500 at 1120 and the Nasdaq at 1870. Two to three rally days this week is expected. It would benefit the bulls more if they were late in the week with some weakness early to work off the overbought near term technicals such as the hourly stochastics. In any case, the rally would last longer if the overall volume increases to over 2.0B/1.8B for the Nasdaq/NYSE, respectively, on rally days.
The Nasdaq monthly stochastic is 64% crossed down, weekly 26% going up, daily 59% crossed up, hourly 92% crossed up but going sideways now and with a high "d." The McClellan Oscillator rose sharply to +49, and its Summation is rising now at -824.
The Nasdaq MACD and money flow are positive while the Williams%R, CCI and DMI (ADX) improved to neutral, and the Acc/Dist remained neutral and the Aroon remained negative. By the time the Aroon improves to neutral or positive, the market may be ready to reverse back down.
The Dow monthly stochastic was 80% crossed down, weekly 41% crossed up, daily 77% crossed up, hourly 90% crossed up but going sideways, with a high "d." The NYSE McClellan Oscillator rose to +47 and its Summation is rising at +301.
The Nasdaq is still operating with the "cross of death" and is well below its 200 dma of 1973.
For now the bulls have the edge and yet they have a lot to prove technically for the longer term.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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