**Possible scenarios tomorrow and and this week bullish and bearish**
Right now the question in everybody's minds are, "is this the start of the big wave 3 rally or another sucker rally?", or "should I cover my short position before a squeeze of massive proportions develops?"
Well, I'm watching Monday very very carefully, because my bearish side is telling me that the move up 1818 to 1917 was wave 4 of the big C wave. The move up was exactly a .333 retrace of the 2105-1818 wave 3 down (which is the normal wave 4 retrace), and was only 3 waves, which would mean one more wave down to at least 1750-1760 or even 1707 But the power of the rally, the strong volume in the advancing stocks, breadth (85% up volume and 14% down volume), and the "smart money" that covered (CNBC mentioned that there were large hedge funds covering...I could have swore on Thursday that a hedge fund manager, and his "community" said they didn't plan on covering until October, and on Friday they started to.) were implying that they would miss the bottom/move up. Also, with Elliott Wave, the two zigzags had equality, which is normally the case. Let me explain...the first zigzag's wave A down was 251 points, as was the second zigzag's wave A. The Wave B in both zigzags were close to equal length, and both Wave C's in both zigzags were equal length (287-290 points each).
This is normally the case in double zigzag formations, with each zigzag conforming to equality...after a double zigzag, the intense oversold pressure creates rallies that are surprisingly strong, fast and furious (description of wave 3) plus the downward channel on the NASDAQ from 2105 broke, creating a new upward channel. BUT, the Wave 4 in the larger zigzag (2251 to 2850) broke the channel as well, and you know what a happened last January.
In order for me to be convinced that the rally is under way, is for the NASDAQ to rally over 1939-1947 tomorrow t least, and break 1995-2000 this week. If there's a gap down tomorrow that breaks 1870-1880, than the NASDAQ is headed for the 1750-1760 range, or as far as 1707 (1.618 X wave A), and if people don't give up on that wave down, I don't know what would do it.
Tomorrow should provide clues as to what wave we're in, and my most bearish stance is that we're in wave 4 up, and wave 5 down should be the wave that sends real fear into the market. But my most bullish stance with Elliott Wave is the fact the both zigzags conformed to equality, and once they hit equality, a suprisingly strong rally developed.
NASDAQ forecast 3782 early next year, S & P 1482, DOW
13,500
Changing NASDAQ forecast from 3026 to 2965 year end, and immediate short term (next month or two) to 2526.
**Update** STOP! HAMMER TIME! (Look at today's NASDAQ candlestick..Side note, eich, there hasn't been a hammer on the NASDAQ all year. A hammer has a small body, and long shadow, with the opening and close prices almost the same, closing at the high )
**Update** Look for a pull back to (updated) 1839-1840 at most, and 1852-1853 at least by tomorrow....if there's a positive move to the Fed meeting, that could trigger the sell wave, or, a pullback ahead of it, than the rally..when or if we get back to that level, the reaction is very important...a high volume rally could trigger the turning point. Today was a three wave wave 4 bounce, but after this fifth wave down, the double zigzag is complete, (A = C) and if this is the case, there's going to be a retrace of the 2328 to 1853 wave, .500 to .618, which is 250-320 points to the upside..
So far, here's the wave count of the "C" wave of the 2nd zigzag in the double zigzag...all the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place.
The first wave down in the C wave was 2105 to 2012 (93 points), 2nd wave was 2012 to 2042, 3rd wave down was 2036/2042 to 1879 (1.618 X 93, wave 1), wave 4 was 1879 to 1930 (.333 rally to 1931), which means wave 5 should be equal length to wave 1, which is 93 points down from 1931, which is 1839-1840. I expect "the rally" to start tomorrow, which should retrace at least .500/.618 of the 450-500 point wave down from 2328 to 1839-1840, which would target 2105-2140. That wouldn't guarantee a wave 3, because there's always a chance of the triple zigzag. (The rally could be another X wave in a complex multi-zigzag correction. I'm gonna cover all the bases.) But a 250-300 point rally is something this market could get in the next week or two. Put call ratio is stratospheric, and could get higher (it's at 1.08 right now)..
Here's another skinowski gem just posted:
(Copy and paste this, the blue link doesn't work)
Message 16230388
msgid=16230388
He's comparing the 1982 bear market to now.
In late August of 1982, the market was exactly 20% off it's highs (the NASDAQ is exactly 19.99% off it's high of 2328 set in May), and the bears were calling for a massive large volume drop, and a sell off to new lows. What they got was a low volume, low volatility whimper, and by Aug. 16-22, the huge kickoff bull market rally, signalling the great bull market of the 80's began, in the middle of a recognized recession, with profits continuing to fall and inflation.
Look familiar?
**Update (after being muted)**
Ok, now it's time to take off the gloves. I'm opening that mouth again...I can literally feel the "don't listen to him he's dellusional" and the "he thinks he's some genius but he's not, I'm saying this because I have a small ***" and the "ha ha ha wave 3, where's the wave 3 ha ha ha" all over SI. I sure do draw a lot of attention around here, don't I. A 25 year old "kid" who has quickly mastered the most difficult form of TA in existence, in 3 months, being able to quickly identify drops and rallies like no one else literally by the milli-second (you know this is true) with a "loud immature arrogant mouth" and "deserves to be suspended and shut up when we tell him to". I dare YOU to figure out THE MOST complex wave forms in existence, namely ending diagonals or complex double zigzagz with middle X waves. Thanks to this hideously sideways market, I've been forced to learn every stinking complex and non complex corrective wave in the book. A crash course in the Elliott Wave. I've read every single page of the abstract Elliott Wave Principle book, memorized and studied every single number, thought and phrase. I'm crazy, and I admit it, but when people motivate me, I don't stop. Well, anyway, I appreciate whoever got me muted today...Anyway, enough of that. By the way, once wave 3 comes, I'll be selling "I got three fingers in the air and I'm waving them at you" gem-x T-shirts here in Los Angeles like hotcakes. But if the wave 3 never comes, and the NASDAQ crashes through 1619, and causes the end of the world, I'll shut this message board down, cancel my membership (I know you want me to), and vanish. I refuse to say that wave 3 WON'T come, because it will. I'm gonna be even more bold, by predicting exactly NASDAQ 3006.23 in the next couple months, and NASDAQ 3500 by early next year. Now go tell your buddies more "ha ha ha wave 3" stories.
Now back to business.
Here are the three formations that I've identified on this long torturous corrective wave.
1.) This is a complex double zigzag corrective wave, which would be labeled as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. The first zigzag would be identified as 2328 to 2077 (wave a), 2077 to 2264 (wave b), 2264 to 1973.70 (Wave C), wave X is the connecting wave, which would be 1973.70 to 2180, than the second zigzag of the double zigzag would be identified as 2180 to 1934 (Wave A), 1934 to 2105 (Wave B)...wave A was 246 points, and due to Wave C's in zigzags being equal length to wave A, than Wave C should be 2105 to 1859. Yeah, we're pretty darn close to that level, but today had the major signs of a bottom - the VIX shot up as high as 15% and 27.5-27.7, the put call ratio is overwhelmingly bullish (tons of puts), the MACD didn't fall to the lows of early April, there's IRRATIONAL PESSIMISM in this market, where EVERY bit of good news is ignored (there's been TONS of good news that has been ignored, HWP had great news, and the morons sold it off) , which is the opposite of irrational exuberence, plus the volume today was extremely low considering the size of the drop. There is ALWAYS a large rally after a double zigzag is completed, but if the equality doesn't fit, than the next biggest size of wave C would be 398 points (1.618 X 246), and the NASDAQ would drop as low as 1707.
2.) Another formation that the many people on SI has been looking at the NASDAQ is the ending diagonal, or wedge.
Take a look at this graphic of a ending diagonal, and notice how it closely resembles the NASDAQ chart the past 3-4 months. elliott-wave-theory.com
Wedges that end on a downtrend ALWAYS move up after the formation completes, NOT down, contrary to what many posters on SI have been babbling about.
If this is a wedge, that would mean that the move from 1619 to 2328 was wave 4 (!!) of the big C wave, and 2328 to now would be a wave 5 wedge. That would mean the next wave up wouldn't be a measly 705-1160 points, but would retrace .500 to .618 of the wave down from 5120 to 1618, which would target the NASDAQ 3500 to 4000, Yup, you heard it here.
That would mean this wedge formation is about to end...wedges are formed when a move has gone "too far to fast"...when a wedge forms on an uptrend, a drop is inevitable and when a wedge forms on a correction, a rally is inevitable.
Wave 1 in the wedge would be 2328 to 2077, wave 2 would be 2077 to 2264, wave 3 would be 2264 to 1934, wave 4 would be 1934 to 2105, and wave 5, which would be occuring now would be 2105 to 1853-1859.
3.) The worst case scenario: In the C wave, the first wave down was 740 points from 4250, last summer. If 1619-2328 was wave 4, than wave 5 should be equal length of wave 1. That would mean a sharp retrace to the 1619-1625 level, which would form a double bottom/truncated fifth wave. But since the most likely correction wave forms are the double zigzag and the wedge, this is hardly likely. But my most bearish forecast this week actually came true, so I'm not going to deny this possibility.
What I'm guessing on Monday is a test of the 1853 to 1859 level in the morning, a 60-70 point rally going into the Fed, and than the final test wave that should be in the headlines this week....
If you don't want to listen to or read these forecasts, than DON'T BOTHER LOOKING AT THIS MESSAGE BOARD. If you got a pole stuck up your you know what, or if you're some old bitter dude who's never gotten la*d, ignore me. But to go out of your way to call me some dellusional acid head punk kid, well, i hope your short this market all the way down to the 1850's. Please, I want to feel your SILENCE for a change.
Check out this chart of the entire A-B-C 5-3-5 zigzag correction of the NASDAQ from 5120 to 1619. This is why I believe the bear market is over. I think that the corrective wave was wave 2 of the wave from NASDAQ 1000 to NASDAQ 5120. The move from 1000 to 5120 was "the kickoff" for a new huge bull market. New bull markets kickoff huge with massive overbought levels, and the corrective waves are fast and fierce. The creation of the internet economy has massively increased productivity and innovation, and this first move is just the beginning...
geocities.com
**Bearish update possible scenario** (I will post both bullish and bearish possible scenarios starting tonite)
From a bearish perspective, the move up from 1915 has been 3 waves, which could label it as the 4th wave in the C wave...that would mean one more wave down to the 1840-1860 level...Should the 1939-1945 level break, that would be a likely possbility. Considering the fact the the volume on this bounce has been light, and the VIX and VXN show a little complacency, it might happen. Keep this though in the back of your mind.
If the 1934-1942 level doesn't hold, than there's gonna be one more wave down, going down as far as 1840-1860. (Which would turn the correction into a double three...double zigzag or a zigzag and a flat).
What's up? My name is Ted, or "gem-x".
(I'm looking for this girl named Dianalee (Dee) Campo who is in medical school at Penn State, and went to (Tri-Delt)University of MD, College Park. I need to contact her, it's important I have this torched stuff cat that's been turned into an ash tray, and it's looking for a home.)
I'm creating this message board for people who are fascinated by the amazing predictive powers of the Elliott Wave Principle. I'm sure there are quite a few who are interested in it, but I'm trying to find them. I'm sure Silicon Investor is the best place to find you guys! I hope there are traders I can meet who have great (although expensive) Elliott Wave programs who'd like to delve into this topic. (I hate Wave 2's and Wave B's!!!) If I can get a handful of people involved on this board, we can get cookin.
I use the Elliott Wave primarily for the stock market, but also for sports cards. (There's an amazing web site called thePit.com where the highly volatile market of sports cards can be traded like the stock market.) I'm also an expert in the wild world of sports card investing (crazier than the NASDAQ), the weird world of eBay, and a recognized musician worldwide who tapped into too many Tim Leary books.
Anyway, if you're looking to discuss the Elliott Wave, and are looking for good strong Elliott Wave forecasts, this is the place to be!
****I will update my forecasts daily, but post REAL TIME opinions using intraday Elliott Wave forecasts, minute by minute. Fearful? Greedy? Just post here, and I'll give you my opinion. Remember, that's an "OPINION."****
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