***** Technical Analysis (August 6)*****
The major indices, Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq fell below their 50 day moving averages but remain above their 200 dmas.
Daily stochastics have low k's but d's are still high enough for indices to come down more before getting extremely oversold.
MACD, DMI (ADX), Acc/Dist, and Summation Indexes/10% components, all point to lower prices.
The 200 dmas are currently at 8541/912/1460, for the Dow/S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively, and the least expectation technically is for Dow 8600, Spx 925, and Nasdaq 1500 in the next month or two.
If the Summations print below the zero line with large negative McClellan Oscillator readings, then the 200 dmas can be breached substantially by mid-October.
For now, however, the bulls will have a chance within a day or two, to rally this market from deeply oversold conditions technically, and we shall see how that sets up once again, because several indicators such as the Summation and MACD are appearing to show a series of lower highs and lower lows, a bearish harbinger of things to come.
Any rally now may be ephemeral as the Spring-Summer rally seems to be moribund now.
If the stock market is in a downtrend now, that may help bonds eventually as a flight to quality, and gold as well.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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