***** Technical Analysis (August 8)*****
There was little change to the technical indicators today, Friday, and the Dow and NYSE continued to outperform the Nasdaq, with the S&P 500 in the middle.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator improved to -24 from -43, while the Nasdaq Osc reading improved to -44 from -48, and it remains at an extreme reading, so a resetting rally is now expected for techs and the Nasdaq in the earlier part of next week.
By that I mean from Monday to Wednesday there should be a period of resetting wherein the Oscillator trends upward towards the zero line. If the bearish scenario is to be borne out, then it may fail to rise above the zero line and will fall back down, taking the index well below 1650.
The Nasdaq TRIN was 1.29, stochastic crossed up, up/down volume 5/8, indicating mild distribution as the selling pressure is letting up, on light volume of 1.3B shares. The OBV and Aroon have joined all the other technical indicators to give negative readings.
The NYSE TRIN was a mildly positive .89, with a/d of 20/11, up/down volume 2/1, indicating moderate accumulation, but on very light volume of 1.1B shares, a type of bearish divergence.
The weekly stochastics are crossed down from high levels for most of the major indices which has the implication that there could be major declines ahead. The daily stochastics are crossed down with "d" high enough for another week or two of weak price action. The hourlies are very oversold, implying a rally is likely in the very near term.
Sentiment indicators were less negative the last couple of days but remain negative.
The gold and bond markets rallied on Friday but the difference is that gold is in a primary bull market and bonds may have ended their bull market in June and may just be resetting now. The 10 year note may retrace back to 4.0% or 3.8% in the next month or two, but may be hard-pressed to come back down to 3.1% again.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading.
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