The aim is to discuss/calculate a "fair value"
for the NASDAQ 100 using analysis of earnings of the
index components. We can also discuss bear market
and bull market values.
This first post is maintained from time to time
with a table of the index components. The table
is updated with the following values:
1) % weighting that each stock has in the index
2) A recent price
3) Estimated forward annual earnings
4) Forward PE based on estimated earnings
Here is the first attempt at these values. I have
used today's closing prices and the earnings
estimates shown at Yahoo finance. So far, the 23
largest index components are included. These
together account for just over 60% of the index:
Ticker Weight Price FY Earnings Forward PE
MSFT 11.29 57.58 1.93 Jun-02 29.8
INTC 6.69 26.07 0.5 Dec-01 52.1
QCOM 4.82 50.54 1.04 Sep-01 48.6
CSCO 4.09 14.47 0.18 Jul-02 80.4
AMGN 3.47 64.12 1.18 Dec-01 54.3
ORCL 2.78 11.46 0.48 May-02 23.9
DELL 2.24 22.57 0.65 Jan-02 34.7
MXIM 2.12 42.91 0.77 Jun-02 55.7
AMAT 1.83 40.03 1.06 Oct-01 37.8
LLTC 1.77 39.75 0.65 Jun-02 61.2
CMCSK 1.76 34.48 -1.28 Dec-01 ???
XLNX 1.75 36.96 0.21 Mar-02 176
SUNW 1.61 10.29 0.21 Jun-02 49.0
ALTR 1.59 26.83 0.36 Dec-01 74.5
WCOM 1.5 12.92 0.73 Dec-01 17.7
GENZ 1.49 51.78 1.18 Dec-01 43.9
CEFT 1.46 49.24 1.17 Dec-01 42.1
IMNX 1.45 18.01 0.29 Dec-01 62.1
CHIR 1.37 47.1 0.92 Dec-01 51.2
PSFT 1.25 29.14 0.6 Dec-01 48.6
GMST 1.24 25.44 ??? ??? ???
PAYX 1.24 31.57 0.81 May-02 39.0
BGEN 1.22 60.31 1.9 Dec-01 31.7
This table could grow to include each stock's
"fair" value based on a historically accepted
fair value PE. Then we can work out the fair
value for the index.
The work that needs to be done includes:
1) Expanding the list to include all 100 components
2) Coming up with reliable information to derive earnings estimates
3) Using an earnings figure consisting of the next 4 quarters,
which will always be approximately a year away, rather than the
figure for the next annual earnings statement, which could be
anything from a day to a year away. |
