The aim is to discuss/calculate a "fair value"
for the NASDAQ 100 using analysis of earnings of the
index components. We can also discuss bear market
and bull market values.
This first post is maintained from time to time
with a table of the index components. The table
is updated with the following values:
1) % weighting that each stock has in the index
2) A recent price
3) Estimated forward annual earnings
4) Forward PE based on estimated earnings
Here is the Sep 10, 2001 version of these values. I have
used yesterday's closing prices and the earnings
estimates shown at Yahoo finance. So far, the 60
largest index components are included. These
together account for just over 90% of the index:
Ticker Weight Price FY Earnings Forward PE
MSFT 11.29 57.58 1.93 Jun-02 29.8
INTC 6.69 26.07 0.5 Dec-01 52.1
QCOM 4.82 50.54 1.04 Sep-01 48.6
CSCO 4.09 14.47 0.18 Jul-02 80.4
AMGN 3.47 64.12 1.18 Dec-01 54.3
ORCL 2.78 11.46 0.48 May-02 23.9
DELL 2.24 22.57 0.65 Jan-02 34.7
MXIM 2.12 42.91 0.77 Jun-02 55.7
AMAT 1.83 40.03 1.06 Oct-01 37.8
LLTC 1.77 39.75 0.65 Jun-02 61.2
CMCSK 1.76 34.48 -1.28 Dec-01 ???
XLNX 1.75 36.96 0.21 Mar-02 176
SUNW 1.61 10.29 0.21 Jun-02 49.0
ALTR 1.59 26.83 0.36 Dec-01 74.5
WCOM 1.5 12.92 0.73 Dec-01 17.7
GENZ 1.49 51.78 1.18 Dec-01 43.9
CEFT 1.46 49.24 1.17 Dec-01 42.1
IMNX 1.45 18.01 0.29 Dec-01 62.1
CHIR 1.37 47.1 0.92 Dec-01 51.2
PSFT 1.25 29.14 0.6 Dec-01 48.6
GMST 1.24 25.44 ??? ??? ???
PAYX 1.24 31.57 0.81 May-02 39.0
BGEN 1.22 60.31 1.9 Dec-01 31.7
EBAY 1.2 54.57 0.45 Dec-01 121
BBBY 1.18 24.35 0.72 Feb-02 33.8
SEBL 1.11 19.58 0.58 Dec-01 33.8
BMET 1.1 27.68 0.92 May-02 30.1
KLAC 1.08 44.2 1.18 Jun-02 37.5
VRTS 1.06 24.02 0.72 Dec-01 33.4
FLEX 1.03 17.96 0.74 Mar-02 24.3
NXTL 1.02 10.55 -2.03 Dec-01 ???
INTU 1.01 36.34 1 Jul-02 36.3
CTAS 1 44.74 1.49 May-02 30.0
IDPH 1 56.15 0.58 Dec-01 96.8
MEDI 0.97 37.84 0.81 Dec-01 46.7
AAPL 0.93 17.37 -0.25 Sep-01 ???
SBUX 0.93 16.45 0.46 Sep-01 35.8
JDSU 0.92 6.21 -0.02 Jun-02 ???
COST 0.9 34.17 1.29 Aug-01 26.5
USAI 0.88 23.07 -0.34 Dec-01 ???
FISV 0.86 34.2 1.07 Dec-01 32.0
ERTS 0.81 54.27 0.64 Mar-02 84.8
ADBE 0.78 32.87 1.26 Nov-01 26.1
CHKP 0.75 32.99 1.29 Dec-01 25.6
CTXS 0.75 30.48 0.75 Dec-01 40.6
VRSN 0.7 40.08 0.63 Dec-01 63.6
DISH 0.63 24.73 -0.52 Dec-01 ???
NVDA 0.63 75.76 1.8 Jan-02 42.1
MLNM 0.62 22.75 -0.59 Dec-01 ???
SPOT 0.62 28.42 0.08 Dec-01 355
NVLS 0.61 37.83 1.38 Dec-01 27.4
CIEN 0.6 13.41 0.6 Oct-01 22.3
ADLAC 0.59 32.25 -3.39 Dec-01 ???
HGSI 0.58 41.59 -0.74 Dec-01 ???
SANM 0.57 14.57 0.84 Sep-01 17.3
BRCM 0.55 30.59 -0.34 Dec-01 ???
BEAS 0.52 13.97 0.39 Jan-02 35.8
BRCD 0.52 20.4 0.28 Oct-01 72.9
PCAR 0.51 55.11 2.02 Dec-01 27.3
PMCS 0.51 24.74 -0.38 Dec-01 ???
From the above we get a weighted average PE for the 60 largest components of 50.5
This is a conservative figure because it excludes the twelve stocks in the table that have negative earnings.
Do we think the NASDAQ 100 is fairly valued at this PE level?
The work that needs to be done includes:
1) Expanding the list to include all 100 components
2) Coming up with reliable information to derive earnings estimates
3) Using an earnings figure consisting of the next 4 quarters,
which will always be approximately a year away, rather than the
figure for the next annual earnings statement, which could be
anything from a day to a year away. |
