***** Technical Analysis (Sept 7)****
This is an new TA update.
Friday saw a mild rally day after two distribution days in a row.
The NYSE a/d was 19/12, u/d vol was 8/15, on moderately heavy volume of 2.3B shares.
The Nasdaq a/d was 5/8, with u/d vol 22/15, on moderate volume of 2.05B shares.
The Nasdaq/NYSE McClellan Oscillators were slightly higher at +8/-4, and indicative of a possible trend change.
Daily stochastics remain decidely negative today after having been staying at very high levels, and had a possible corrective bounce up after a decisive downturn on Wednesday and Thursday. Rarely does a market reverse back up immediately after distribution days following a very overbought condition.
Hourly stochastics need a few more frames to top out and cross down from high levels, so any bounce could be a sign of a top.
Investors Intelligence and other sentiment indicators are slightly to moderately bearish from a contrarian view.
Below is a link to the DMI(ADX), slow stochastics and StochRSI:
stockcharts.com
See the indicators below:
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pc30!c20][vc60][iud20!ua12,26,9]
Use daily and weekly charts to view the toppiness the market may be forming.
If the May top and the ensuing decline was the beginning of the Wave 3 down, then the corrective move up from the June/July lows, may be over now or over soon.
Stocks, oil, and gold are all vulnerable to a downtrend now.
Be sure to use the advantages of the "top-down" approach, a paradigm in technical trading. The bottoms-up approach refers to the idea that market timing is not used and that the goal is to select strong companies from a fundamental standpoint to buy and hold.
The "top-down" approach refers the the idea that one first ascertains the trend of the market, the strongest or weakest sectors for that trend, and the strongest or weakest stocks within those sectors, to trade, all with the trend.
For breadth momentum charts, see the chart link below and modify it:
stockcharts.com
(change this chart to $compx, weekly charts, and change the lower settings to slow stochastics, macd, and Williams%R to get the best chart)
The Nas weekly Summation-related charts are below:
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pc30!c20][vc60][iud20!ua12,26,9]
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are linked below:
stockcharts.com
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor.
Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL.
I can be reached at drbob512@msn.com. |
