***** Technical Analysis (Sept 19)****
This is an new TA update.
On Tuesday the market was weaker in the first half of the session than the second half as stocks rose steadily from their lows.
The NYSE a/d was 13/17, u/d vol 8/15, on 2.36B shares, but the u/d vol had been 1/3.
The Nasdaq a/d was 11/18, u/d vol 5/14, on 2.1B shares, but the u/d vol has been as negative as 1/5.
The NYSE TRIN ended at a negative 1.35 but had been over 1.50, as had the Nasdaq TRIN.
Daily stochastics are mixed and neutral while the 60 minute stochastics are crossed down.
The McClellan Oscillators and Summation Indexes declined to +6/-5, for the Nasdaq/NYSE, as the NYSE Oscillator keeps whipsawing above and below the zero line, and the breadth momentum indicators appear to be weakening. The McClellan 10% indexes for both have made a lower high as well.
The Nasdaq has gaps below at around 2120 and 2065, which are likely to get filled sometime in the future.
The S&P500 has tested the 1326 level and so the question is whether it will be a double top reversal formation, or if it will rally once again and break out above it. It seems that in order to break out, it needs to do it within the next few days.
Crude oil was down over $2/barrel and gold was also down as commodities and their common stocks remain in a downtrend.
Tomorrow the FOMC meeting is likely to announce no rate changes.
With today's 2nd half modest rally, the market could open higher on Wednesday. Market internals will signal the likely trend scenario.
Below is a link to the DMI(ADX), slow stochastics and StochRSI:
stockcharts.com
See the indicators below:
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pc30!c20][vc60][iud20!ua12,26,9]
Be sure to use the advantages of the "top-down" approach, a paradigm in technical trading. The bottoms-up approach refers to the idea that market timing is not used and that the goal is to select strong companies from a fundamental standpoint to buy and hold.
The "top-down" approach refers the the idea that one first ascertains the trend of the market, the strongest or weakest sectors for that trend, and the strongest or weakest stocks within those sectors, to trade, all with the trend.
For breadth momentum charts, see the chart link below and modify it:
stockcharts.com
(change this chart to $compx, weekly charts, and change the lower settings to slow stochastics, macd, and Williams%R to get the best chart)
The Nas weekly Summation-related charts are below:
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pc30!c20][vc60][iud20!ua12,26,9]
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are linked below:
stockcharts.com
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor.
Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
Dr.Bob's mission is to teach Technical Analysis and demonstrate a structured approach to Market Analysis, for position and swingtrading. There are many other TA structures, strategies and systems.
Dr.Bob no longer hosts Stocktimers meetings on Sunday nights at AOL.
I can be reached at drbob512@msn.com. |
