***** Technical Analysis (September 22)****
The weakness from Friday spilled over today, with the market opening down sharply on the Nikkei's sharp fall overseas on yen worries. The major indices were due for profit-taking anyway, and this was a good excuse to sell.
The question is whether this marks the beginning of a major correction, which is by definition, a 10% decline, or just another minor pullback to reset the indicators and supply/demand balance before more upside action to new recovery highs. Currently the latter is seemingly more likely as the money flow indications are still quite positive.
The McClellan Oscillators fell below the zero line, turning the Summation back down, so we shall see how long it continues and if it accelerates to the downside.
The Dow may ultimately reach 10,000 and Nasdaq 2,000, before the risk for a trend reversal is serious.
The bond market fell today as the USD weakened and its next major move is in question. To retrace 50% the 10 year note could reach 110, as it has already retraced 38.2%.
Gold rallied sharply again, perhaps in reaction to the weak USD. It has finally retested $389/oz spot, and appears destined to reach at least $400 this year, with $450 within reach next year.
The energy complex has been weak and is searching for a bottom. Crude could bottom out in the $25-26/barrel.
Dr.Bob's commentaries are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, options, or ETF's as Dr.Bob is not a Registered Investment Advisor. Information and data provided here is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed to be accurate.
Always do your own research and due diligence before investing or trading. Remember that Technical Analysis can change by the day, and as such, one day's TA may not be the next day's TA interpretation.
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