The charming and very handsome Mr. Wexler discusses his favorite investment ideas, ruminates about the market, and makes fun of stock frauds and scams.
9/08/08
I believe that at this point, investment banks such as JPM, MER, GS, etc. Must be regarded as large-scale stock and bond frauds. The reasons should be crystal clear to any intelligent investor following the recent financial debacles.
As with all stock frauds I've covered in the past, I am 100% certain these stocks will eventually trade significantly lower. Thanks to their already overblown market caps, I don't see much danger of outrageous short-squeezes...and, obviously, there is no danger of these stocks trading higher on "earnings" as their income statements and balance sheets are at least partially fictitious.
The simplest way to play this is to continue accumulating SKF. Don't be scared off by these rallies or foreign central bank interventions. In due course, the chickens always come home.
8/11/08
I consider this a strong bear market rally. Tradeable, but really more of a a good selling/shorting opportunity. I stand by my thesis that we are still in a secualr bear market in U.S. stocks, coupled with a secular bull market in commodities. I also believe the recent collapse of the frothy Asian stock markets also present new opportunities to get long there.
5/29/08
Using the temporary lift from the fictitious GDP numbers to take profits on some of my stock that has done well over the past few weeks. Also using the corresponding pullback in gold and grains to add more.
5/16/08
Taking a big swing at UNH. It's going into the "deep value" portfolio with SBUX...
5/14/08
Had some worries about the pullback in gold and the sharp rise in stocks. However, the macroeceonomic climate continues to deteriorate, and much of this activity smells of a short squeeze in stocks, and -worse still - a blowoff top in treasuries. Long commodities, gold, tobacco, big pharma, refiners.
4/30/08
A screaming, table-pounding buy on SBUX. Short term...who knows? Longer term...you won't be sorry.
4/24/08
Buying large positions in big pharma such as PFE. Many of these stocks are trading
at multi-year lows with high dividend yields. SBUX got shot on poor earnings...but continuing
to buy more as it gets puked up. Commodities and gold suffer as money rotates out
of them and back into stocks.
1/25/08 update...
My prediction of a news story about a house selling for $1 comes true even sooner
than I expected:
Message 24248992
1/03/07 update...
Though I am fairly certain the U.S. has already tipped into recession, there are some stocks out
there which are beginning to look like compelling values. I bought back my entire SBUX position and then some at prices below 19 a share.
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PREDICTIONS
I am posting these in the header to create a timestamp and an easy way for anyone to judge my prognostications of economic/market conditions over the next few years.
1) We are entering a secular bear market in U.S. real estate and equities. I believe that Bernake's ill-fated decision to lower interest rates coming off the greatest asset bubble in history was a bell ringing. Stocks may get a little knee-jerk traction in the short term, but they will inevitably head lower...significantly lower.
2) Much like the real estate collapse is starting in rural areas and heading towards urban centers, the stock market will begin falling apart where the seller of finished goods meets the consumer - stocks of major retailers, then head down the supply chain.
3) Commodities will head higher as the torch is being passed from the declining consumer-driven economy of the United States, to the growing Asian, European and LatAm economies. Also, the U.S. stocks that run countertrend will have good exposure overseas.
4) Before we hit bottom in real estate, there will be at least one news story of a house/condo trading for $1.
5) Gold will continue its inverse relationship to the dollar, and at some point, accelerate. Gold will trade for over $3,000/oz.
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