WOW! An almost 8-fold rise in 52 weeks in a large cap company; and it wasn't as if DELL was facing bankruptcy a year ago. Let's see...very fine earnings and market growth, but now.... mania and momentum. Congrads to DELL holders, but what about profiting from DELL stock from this point forward? As several people have noted, this current no-news surge is reminiscent of NSCP and IOMG spikes. Eventually bad news will befall DELL...the big guys are honing their channels, little guys are hungrily imitating DELL, retailers are imitating DELL's non-proprietary commodity business, and the overall market may cycle down. Or perhaps momentum on its own will simply decide to turn. IMHO the best way to profit from DELL now is on the downside and even AAPL would have a better return 12 months hence. DELL is a wall street darling and mutual funds ever more bloated. However, DELL stock is now manic and these types of manias always end with at least a partial collapse. The question is when. I'm looking for help in recognizing the top. The top I'm looking for should hold at least 6 months, though it certainly could go longer. I'll be happy to lead with a risky prediction. The top will come on July 24 at a price of 82 (lets use post-split numbers so that it makes sense a week from now).
Please venture a prediction, a triggering event etc. Chart analysis is welcome. |
