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Technology Stocks
DELL CLIMAX SITE

An SI Board Since July 1997

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans	Symbol
158	0	0	DELL

Emcee: Rio Jangada	Type: Unmoderated

Introduction Market Data Compact

WOW! An almost 8-fold rise in 52 weeks in a large cap company; and it wasn't as if DELL was facing bankruptcy a year ago. Let's see...very fine earnings and market growth, but now.... mania and momentum. Congrads to DELL holders, but what about profiting from DELL stock from this point forward? As several people have noted, this current no-news surge is reminiscent of NSCP and IOMG spikes. Eventually bad news will befall DELL...the big guys are honing their channels, little guys are hungrily imitating DELL, retailers are imitating DELL's non-proprietary commodity business, and the overall market may cycle down. Or perhaps momentum on its own will simply decide to turn. IMHO the best way to profit from DELL now is on the downside and even AAPL would have a better return 12 months hence. DELL is a wall street darling and mutual funds ever more bloated. However, DELL stock is now manic and these types of manias always end with at least a partial collapse. The question is when. I'm looking for help in recognizing the top. The top I'm looking for should hold at least 6 months, though it certainly could go longer. I'll be happy to lead with a risky prediction. The top will come on July 24 at a price of 82 (lets use post-split numbers so that it makes sense a week from now).

Please venture a prediction, a triggering event etc. Chart analysis is welcome.

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Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
158	Hi RIO, ...and I thought this thread was dead. Silly me! Congrats to both of	mark rose	-	11/7/1997
157	mark, Sure looks like DELL will be down for at least the 6 month count I was l	Rio Jangada	-	11/7/1997
156	Death of another doomed thread! This marks the tombstone of another dead DeLL	mark rose	-	9/20/1997
155	DELL moving up on earnings expectations, while the overall market sinks. HWP t	Rio Jangada	-	8/17/1997
154	Hi Rio, IMO today's action is answering all your Qs. Dell will soon settle	Arik T.G.	-	8/11/1997
153	For alot of these stocks, the is simply no justification for the high PE's.	Jeff Gurian	-	8/10/1997
152	"I dont think that recent run-up was all momentum, I would say momentum ac	Keith Zhang	-	8/8/1997
151	Im still out on the correction deal. I thought that the beginning of the week w	Jeff Gurian	-	8/7/1997
150	Agreed! Honestly speaking shorting is hell of scary, especially on Dell... It i	Keith Zhang	-	8/7/1997
149	This is not an off topic at all- the business of odds, buying, selling, shoring	Jeff Gurian	-	8/7/1997
148	Jeff, you may have misread my previous post: I mean investors usually long and	Keith Zhang	-	8/6/1997
147	First, you are correct in your assumption that the vast majority of traders are	Jeff Gurian	-	8/6/1997
146	Indeed Apple Computer does look like it will prove to be a better investment th	Rio Jangada	-	8/6/1997
145	calculated speculation is not gambling since the odds are calculated based one&	Keith Zhang	-	8/5/1997
144	Yes, I found the even the deep in the money puts are a little overpriced (or th	Keith Zhang	-	8/5/1997
143	Rio, Read my lips- No new highs. techstocks.com Arik.	Arik T.G.	-	8/5/1997
142	About pre-earnings put options: the premium for both puts and calls can go sky	Rio Jangada	-	8/3/1997
141	Tonyt: You wouldn't go wrong holding either company. However, you might get	zalesky	-	8/3/1997
140	I did not mean to imply that all shorts are gambling- thats just what I believe	Jeff Gurian	-	8/1/1997
139	Is there any reason why both CPQ and DELL should not be held? I would think th	tonyt	-	8/1/1997
138	Jim, you are assuming a lot of things here, one being compaq can only grow at t	Keith Zhang	-	8/1/1997
137	Invest in CPQ so that you can grow at 1/2.5 the revenue rate of DELL? OK....	jim kelley	-	8/1/1997
136	All, JP Morgan downgrades DELL on price concern	Sanjay M. Shah	-	8/1/1997
135	There are more than two weeks between now and earning report. I believe the eu	Keith Zhang	-	8/1/1997
134	I don't think shorts are gambling. It is calculated speculation based on ma	Keith Zhang	-	8/1/1997

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