This is not an off topic at all- the business of odds, buying, selling, shoring, etc. is a fundamental topic at the heart of any investment. After all, isnt every investment a gamble of some kind? For example, we can all agree that Dell is a great company, but what if their headquarters were to explode tommrow (God forbid)? Dell would be worth alot less than it is now.
I suppose all these "gambles" come down to risk. Short term buying of Dell is high risk. Long term buying of Dell is low risk (assuming their headquartes do not explode :-) ). Shorting Dell now is lower risk than in normal circumatances, but there still remains a large amount of risk with that transaction. After all, I concluded last year that the market was overvalued and almost sold a large portion of my stocks. I held simply because I was following the belief that it is pointless to "fight" the market. Fortunately, I have profited greatly from my lack of vision.
What my current belief comes down to is I am neutral on Dell. If I was an owner (as I am), I would not sell until a clear direction is established. If I did not own the stock, I would not buy now due to the high price. With that opinion, I honestly believe that shorting is almost as big of a gamble as buying. As an owner, Im going to wait for earnings. They can establish that the current price is either justifaible or too extreme. |
