This thread is for my thinking on the market.
Just for the record and easy for myself to check.
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Here are short-term, medium term and long-term update on several indices.
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Updated 05/06/2005
short-term
9 > 12 ema
9 < 12 ema
$ndx happaned 02/22
$compq happened 02/22
$spx 03/14
$indu 03/16
$rut (russell 2000) 03/11
12 > 26 ema
12 < 26 ema
$bkx happaned 02/17/2005
$ndx happened on Janaury !!
$compq the same as $ndx
$spx 03/18/05
$tran happened on Janaury !! Then reverse in January.
$rut 03/16
$indu 03/18/05
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Updated 4/15/2005
Medium-term
Price over 50 sma
Price under 50 sma
$indu closed below 02/22/05
$ndx just closed below on 01/05/05 (still under from Jan., lagging other indices)
$compq just closed below on 02/22/05
$rut closed below on 02/18/05 (a day before $compq)
$tran happened on 01/11 (also still under, underperformed !!)
$spx happened on 03/16/05
$wlsh happened on 03/16/05
$xoi 04/13/05
Bullish: 20 day over 50 day sma:
Bearish: 20 day under 50 day sma:
$bkx 01/24/05, interesting that it happned many days before 12 and 26 ema crossed over (wow, there was a cross-over briefly in between 01/24/05 and 02/22/05)
$ndx happened in Jan. 20, 2005
$compq Jan 21, 2005
$spx happened at 04/01/05 (there was a switch over in between)
$indu happened at 04/01/05
$rut happed 03/30/05
$wlsh happened 04/01/04
Price over 200 sma
Price closed under 200 sma
$bkx happened 03/16/2005
$ndx 03/22/05
$compq 03/29/05
$indu 04/14/05
$spx 04/15/05
$rut 04/14/05
$wlsh 04/15/05
$tran 04/14/05
$hui happened 03/23/05
Another interesting way to look at it --
50 sma and 100 sma.
50 day sma < 100 day sma
$ndx 03/07/2005
$compq 03/11/2005
$spx 04/21/2005
$indu 04/21/2005
$tran not yet, but close
$bkx 03/10/2005
Kiss of death -- 50 and 200 day sma
-- 50 above 200:
-- 50 under 200:
$bkx 04/14/2005 Is this the first sector doing this ?
Now if 100 sma is under 200 day sma, that will all line-up bearish ?
$hui happened many months ago. Should have taken caution.
$ndx did it (bearish) on April 29
$compq almost on May 6 -- probably next week.
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Updated 1/04/2005
Long-term (weekly chart)
Looking at 10, 40 and 80 sma weekly
$ndx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$spx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$indu
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$hui (barely -- starting to look bearish)
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
ewj
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$xoi
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$osx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
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Updated 01/07/2004
Mega long-term -- looking at 20 and 40 month sma, and 80 month sma
--- It normally takes a while (many years) for these sma
to cross. Look at $nikk, the peak was at late 1989 and 1990, however it took three more years for 40 sma to go under 80 sma. And $tnx 40 sma still over $80 sma for many many years.
20 month sma over 40 month sma: $hui, $osx, $ndx, $nikk
20 month sma under 40 month sma: $tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G
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Daily Chart Checking
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Major Indices
$INDU (Dow)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SPX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$COMPAQ (NAZ)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Also
$BPCOMPQ and $BPNDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NAMO and $NASI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NYMO and $NYSI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$RUT (Russell 2000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$WLSH (Wilshire 5000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$VLE (Value Line Arithmetic Index)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
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Key Sectors
$TRAN
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SOX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XOI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$OSX (oil service)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$BKX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
RTH (retail holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
BBH (Biotech holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Home Builder (^DJUSHB)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
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Gold and Currency and commodity
$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$GOLD/$USD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$GOLD/$XEU (over Euro)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$GOLD/$XJY (over Yen)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$HUI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$USD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XEU (Euro)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XJY (Yen)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$CRB
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Interest rate
$TYX (30 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$TNX (10 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$IRX (3 month)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Bond price
$USB (30 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$UST (10 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Key Ratios
$HUI:$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$CRX:$CRB (commodity shares with commodity)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
IEF:DHY (credit spread -- if this ratio increase, mean junk bond spread widen, not good for equity market)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Also
$USB:VWEHX for credit spread as well
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NDX:$INDU (risk taker ratio)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$TNX:$IRX (yield curve)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$XOI:$WTIC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
Junk bond trend
SPHIX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
DHY
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
VWEHX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
International markets
$NIKK
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
EWJ
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$SSEC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
FXI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G |
