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Strategies & Market Trends
Lao Ou's Personal Thoughts
An SI Board Since December 2004
Posts SubjectMarks Bans
42 1 0
Emcee:  Lao Ou Type:  Moderated
Introduction Compact
This thread is for my thinking on the market.

Just for the record and easy for myself to check.
==============================================================
Here are short-term, medium term and long-term update on several indices.
==============================================================

Updated 05/06/2005
short-term
9 > 12 ema

9 < 12 ema
$ndx happaned 02/22
$compq happened 02/22
$spx 03/14
$indu 03/16
$rut (russell 2000) 03/11

12 > 26 ema

12 < 26 ema
$bkx happaned 02/17/2005
$ndx happened on Janaury !!
$compq the same as $ndx
$spx 03/18/05
$tran happened on Janaury !! Then reverse in January.
$rut 03/16
$indu 03/18/05
------------------------------------------------------
Updated 4/15/2005

Medium-term

Price over 50 sma

Price under 50 sma

$indu closed below 02/22/05
$ndx just closed below on 01/05/05 (still under from Jan., lagging other indices)

$compq just closed below on 02/22/05
$rut closed below on 02/18/05 (a day before $compq)
$tran happened on 01/11 (also still under, underperformed !!)

$spx happened on 03/16/05
$wlsh happened on 03/16/05

$xoi 04/13/05

Bullish: 20 day over 50 day sma:

Bearish: 20 day under 50 day sma:
$bkx 01/24/05, interesting that it happned many days before 12 and 26 ema crossed over (wow, there was a cross-over briefly in between 01/24/05 and 02/22/05)

$ndx happened in Jan. 20, 2005
$compq Jan 21, 2005
$spx happened at 04/01/05 (there was a switch over in between)
$indu happened at 04/01/05
$rut happed 03/30/05
$wlsh happened 04/01/04

Price over 200 sma

Price closed under 200 sma

$bkx happened 03/16/2005
$ndx 03/22/05
$compq 03/29/05
$indu 04/14/05
$spx 04/15/05
$rut 04/14/05
$wlsh 04/15/05
$tran 04/14/05

$hui happened 03/23/05

Another interesting way to look at it --
50 sma and 100 sma.

50 day sma < 100 day sma

$ndx 03/07/2005
$compq 03/11/2005
$spx 04/21/2005
$indu 04/21/2005
$tran not yet, but close
$bkx 03/10/2005

Kiss of death -- 50 and 200 day sma
-- 50 above 200:
-- 50 under 200:

$bkx 04/14/2005 Is this the first sector doing this ?
Now if 100 sma is under 200 day sma, that will all line-up bearish ?

$hui happened many months ago. Should have taken caution.

$ndx did it (bearish) on April 29
$compq did it May 9, 2005.

-------------------------------------------------------
Updated 1/04/2005
Long-term (weekly chart)
Looking at 10, 40 and 80 sma weekly

$ndx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G

$spx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G

$indu
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G
$hui (barely -- starting to look bearish)
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G

ewj
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G

$xoi
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G

$osx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G

$tnx
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[pb10!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lk14!lf!lg!ld20!ll14]&pref=G

-------------------------------------------------------
Updated 01/07/2004
Mega long-term -- looking at 20 and 40 month sma, and 80 month sma

--- It normally takes a while (many years) for these sma
to cross. Look at $nikk, the peak was at late 1989 and 1990, however it took three more years for 40 sma to go under 80 sma. And $tnx 40 sma still over $80 sma for many many years.

20 month sma over 40 month sma: $hui, $osx, $ndx, $nikk
20 month sma under 40 month sma: $tnx

stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyyay[pb20!b40!b80!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Ld20!Ll14]&pref=G

---------------------------------------------------------
Daily Chart Checking
---------------------------------------------------------
Major Indices
$INDU (Dow)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$SPX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$COMPAQ (NAZ)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$NDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

Also
$BPCOMPQ and $BPNDX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
$NAMO and $NASI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$NYMO and $NYSI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$RUT (Russell 2000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$WLSH (Wilshire 5000)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$VLE (Value Line Arithmetic Index)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

----------------------------------------

Key Sectors
$TRAN
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$SOX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$XOI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$OSX (oil service)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$BKX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

RTH (retail holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

BBH (Biotech holder)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

Home Builder (^DJUSHB)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
-------------------------------

Gold and Currency and commodity
$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$GOLD/$USD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$GOLD/$XEU (over Euro)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$GOLD/$XJY (over Yen)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$HUI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$USD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$XEU (Euro)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$XJY (Yen)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$CRB
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

Interest rate
$TYX (30 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$TNX (10 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$IRX (3 month)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

Bond price
$USB (30 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$UST (10 year)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

Key Ratios
$HUI:$GOLD
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$CRX:$CRB (commodity shares with commodity)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

IEF:DHY (credit spread -- if this ratio increase, mean junk bond spread widen, not good for equity market)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

Also
$USB:VWEHX for credit spread as well
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$NDX:$INDU (risk taker ratio)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$TNX:$IRX (yield curve)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$XOI:$WTIC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

Junk bond trend

SPHIX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

DHY
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

VWEHX
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

International markets
$NIKK
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

EWJ
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

$SSEC
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G

FXI
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc9!c12!c26!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lf!Lg!Uya7,14,28!Ll14]&pref=G
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
42Between Oil (energy) sector and gold sector, energy is much stronger. There is Lao Ou-5/10/2005
41I think gold and $hui bears have some merit. Look at this chart of $hui. Since 2Lao Ou-4/2/2005
40From this blog:http://bigpicturespeculator.blogspot.com/ There is a metal/energLao Ou-3/29/2005
39stockcharts.com[w,a]dalaynay[df][pa-1000!a0!c20!f] When this indicator rises abLao Ou-3/24/2005
38I am proud to say I bought BBH this morning at 132. See my previous post. Lao OLao Ou-3/14/2005
37Sectors as used in decision point. • Airline ($XAL) stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyaLao Ou-3/13/2005
36Look at $usd weekly -- Carl Swenlin mentioned that there are three higher high oLao Ou-3/11/2005
35$RUT has three black crow -- bearish and 9 ema is ready to cross 12 ema And it Lao Ou-3/11/2005
34$BKX, see how it will do in 200 sma stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[d20040309,2005Lao Ou-3/10/2005
33Gold sector weekly chart, set to today March 8th. $hui stockcharts.com[w,a]wacLao Ou-3/9/2005
32Gold looks strong. But it still has a lot of room to go. $hui 20 sma is still beLao Ou-2/23/2005
31<Gold sector is the best bet right now after two days sharp up> We live iRarebird-2/13/2005
30Now let us look at some weekly chart for these gold, silver stocks. $HUI stockcLao Ou-2/12/2005
29Gold sector is the best bet right now after two days sharp up. I got some in on Lao Ou-2/12/2005
28Gold sector is the best bet right now after two days sharp up. I got some in on Lao Ou-2/12/2005
27$HUI is ready to move up. 9 ema is close to be larger than 12 ema. Set to todayLao Ou-1/25/2005
2620 day sma and 50 day sma croos is a good indicator for intermediate bearish or Lao Ou-1/21/2005
25Major sectors monthly, weekly and daily (20,50 and 200 sma) $HUI stockcharts.coLao Ou-1/17/2005
24Weekend analysis -- 01/15/2005 NEM and $HUI monthly NEM still has room to go dLao Ou-1/17/2005
23Bullish Percentage $BPCOMPQ Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index INDX stockcLao Ou-1/17/2005
22Things can change quickly. Oil and Oil service ($xoi, $osx (oih)) switch from 9,Lao Ou-1/15/2005
21EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS--ETFs DIA DIAMONDS® COMPONENTS FFF FORTUNE 500 IndLao Ou-1/14/2005
20Message 20923713 Let us look at YHOO again. Yesterday 20 sma went under 50 sma.Lao Ou-1/13/2005
19$HUI today was tryig to break 200 day sma. It is a gravestone doji. Not very bilLao Ou-1/12/2005
18Some S&P Sector Spiders Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) stockcharts.com[w,aLao Ou-1/9/2005
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