Silicon foundry business to grow 18% to 20% in 2001, analyst says
By Mark LaPedus
Semiconductor Business News
(12/21/00 18:49 p.m. EST)
PHOENIX, Ariz. -- Despite what appears to be a major downturn in the silicon foundry business, the industry will show steady growth in 2001, said Joanne Itow, who tracks the area for Semico Research Corp. of Phoenix.
In fact, Itow has not revised her original forecast for the silicon foundry business for 2001, in spite of some uncertainties in the market.
Originally, Itow projected the foundry industry would grow a modest 17% in terms of total wafers shipped in 2001, as compared to 2000. "In 2001, I am still looking at 18% to 20% growth," Itow said.
And surprisingly, she has raised her forecast for 2000. "It looks like 2000 will be larger than I originally thought," she said. "Originally, I projected the foundry industry would grow in the high-30's. Now, I am looking at 40% to 50% growth for 2000."
In total, the silicon foundry business is projected to grow from 9.2 million wafers shipped in 1999, to 13.7 million in 2000, she said. In 2001, the market will hit about 16.4 million wafers shipped, Semico said.
Still, there are some ominous signs in the market. In fact, the "Big 3" foundry vendors in Asia--Singapore's Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Pte. Lte., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., and United Microelectronics Corp.--have reported some softening in recent days (see Dec. 20 story ).
"It looks like the market is softening a little bit," Itow said. "TSMC, for example, originally said they would be sold out for 2001. Now, they will have a capacity utilization of 95% in the first quarter of 2001, and 90% in the second quarter of 2001. That's still not bad."
Prices in the industry remain stable--at least for now. "Until this quarter, wafer prices were stable," she said. "Wafer prices dropped slightly in the fourth quarter. On average, prices dropped 1.5%."
But with a slew of capacity coming online in 2001, coupled with some new foundry players in China, Korea, and Malaysia, the industry could be in store for a price war. At this stage, however, there is little or no signs that vendors are bombing the prices.
Still, the worst is yet to come. Like her previous forecast, Itow still believes the real downturn will hit in 2002. "We're still projecting a downturn and overcapacity in 2002," she added.
siliconstrategies.com
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Not up on this analyst.
Jack |
