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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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From: OldAIMGuy	7/22/2025 10:14:26 AM
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I met up with Ferris over the weekend and we had a Day Off. So the report's a day late this week. (Road America, near Turn 3) Our R&R didn't help the market risk outlook, however. It appears both Valuations and also Speculation continued very close to where they were the previous week. SignalPoint's Market Risk Indicator (MRI) ticked up another point to an indicated 35% suggested cash held in reserve for diversified stock/fund portfolios. The MRI Oscillator remained at +7 showing continued strong upward risk pressure. This new period of Caution seems to also have been realized in the flattening out of the S&P 500 last week. Value Line's "Appreciation Potential" data is used to calculate the v-Wave. While it's a 'black box' as far as what is used to calculate it, its long term consistent pattern makes it useful as our v-Wave base. Here we see the slope of the risk profile flattening a bit more than the MRI on both the 18 month and 3-5 year time frames. Even so, they are still at their cautionary ranges. The v-Wave is suggesting 34% reserve of cash to be held for future buying should the market prices sag here. This level is unchanged this week. The shorter term (18 month) did drop significantly this week, from 41% to 33%. With both market risk indicators being in agreement and yet determined from two different data streams, it would appear we should expect the broad market indexes to stall in their rebounds from April's lows. While at or slightly above earlier highs, they may have gone as far as they can go for now. I don't see our cautionary levels as a sign of a market Crash, but just caution. Then again, neither did Ferris and Friends................... Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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