Mephisto,
MEMC was off 1 1/8 on no news today. I called the company to make sure that we hadn't missed anything. There was none. Just high volatility in a thin market I guess.
The company has 41,430,000 shares outstanding according to Standard and Poors. On a normal day, 283,210 shares change hands. Todays' volume was 165,500 shares, 41.5% below normal. In this kind of a market, we can see big swings on very little volume.
Ironically, First Call updated its earnings estimates today too. WFR picked up another analyst earnings upgrade for the September quarter, the fiscal year (ending in December), and for FY 97. The consensus for FY 97 is $4.65, up from $4.61 a week ago.
There's been some debate as to whether or not we're going to see an over-supply of silicon wafers in the near future, say next year. If you subscribe to the notion that analysts vote with their earning projections, then, of the five who reported to First Call in the past 30 days, three voted no and two voted yes. Actually that's a gross oversimplification. Suffice it to say that we've had three earnings projection upgrades for FY 97 in the past month, and two downgrades. Estimates vary between $4.80 and $4.41 for '97, a spread of almost 9%. Clearly, there's no real consensus yet on the silicon wafer supply and demand relationship. As I said before, that's what makes a market.
Bob M. |
