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Biotech / Medical : Pharmacyclics (PCYC)
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To: John Metcalf who wrote (7)9/15/1996 10:48:00 AM
From: Doug Meetmer   of 717
 
John,

Glad to see you are still following PCYC. I think the fundamental
story is very sound and there is still room for significant
upside potential, particularly as clinical trials progress and
(hopefully) positive study results are made public. The CEO hinted
about this in a recent newsrelease.

I agree with you that it raises an eyebrow to have such a large
chemical company involved in manufacture. My experience has been
that developing companies will often seek out very small manufacturing
partners intially, and expand if needed. The purely bullish
investor could take the news to mean that indeed, the future market
potential of photodynamic therapy is huge. I would love for this
to be the case but I think it is impossible to predict with any
accuracy if we are talking about a one billion dollar market or a
ten billion dollar market. Certainly a difference of an order of
magnitude would make all the difference in the world for the
companies who get involved early. Personally, I think it will take
years before we will have a better handle on this, but maybe HC
doesn't want to miss out. If HC will eventually realize revenues
in the two hundred to four hundred million dollar range, that would
represent up to five per-cent of their total revenue stream, which
is not huge but also nothing to sneeze at.

Let us hope for the best.

Doug
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