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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: Tom Trader who wrote (14091)1/29/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: j g cordes  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Tom, Some fundamental thoughts.. GDP was cruising last month, over 5% but with no inflation. The drive to economize and increase productivity in American industry was first driven by the late 80's into '90's global competetive race.. especially against the Asian miracle. They've relapsed and we've simply shifted the same economic effort into consumer products delivery as that's where the money is.

IF the Asian and Latin American economies recover and Europe starts on the real benefit curve of EU, American companies are well positioned to have substantially higher profits than what's currently expected. They're up and running, installing the latest and most efficient machineries, fully employed with a heavy consumer marketing mindset. If this scenario pans out, '99 into '01 will be surprizingly strong.

There will be increased demand on some commodity groups, especially oil which I see is falling behind the production capacity curve. Wells are being closed and dependence on foreign suppliers is the highest its ever been. A covering squeeze is possible that could make Dolly Parton wince! Currently things are balanced, I'm looking at the late spring/summer cycle, watching how well the charts indicate bottoming patterns.

Doing just fine.. thanks for asking, sometimes trades fall into place with an uncanny order and logic, other times I feels like I'm blindfolded in a line dance.

Jim

Short term I still feel we need consolidation from this manic focus on one or two sectors.
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