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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way
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To: Steven Dopp who wrote (140)4/18/2001 11:14:37 AM
From: - with a K  Read Replies (1) of 469
 
I am in the camp that says SSGs are critically important and valid, but they don't tell all, and therefore, should only be part of the buy decision. They don't address today's market issues like earnings warnings, slowdowns, and layoffs and competitor's having difficulty. They don't tell you if we're in a bull or bear market, and as the saying goes, the best decision in a bear market may be to just wait on the sidelines.

SSGs can't look at a stock graph and suggest it's a falling knife and you should be patient and wait for a base to form at x price.

As has been discussed, they're an adjunct to the whole decision process, albeit an important one. One thing some of us discussed was that the presentation last month on ADC missed some of these crucial issues. No PERT was presented; the previous lay-offs and warnings were not mentioned; and the new CEO was not mentioned.

Duhhhhhhh.

FWIW, my club met last night and after licking our wounds from our tech-heavy portfolio, we voted to buy more Fannie Mae. A member presented an SSG which we commented was beautiful in its consistency. He used estimated EPS growth of 14.5%; low price of $56, giving a buy range of $56-94; had a forecast high of $171; up/dwn of 4.9 to 1; and potential annual return of 17% Someone commented that FNM was a safe play with declining interest rates and that while "boring" this is a good move at this time.

I agree.
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