Avi Gilburt: Well, let's take this one step at a time. I am still not yet confident that we are indeed going to be start -- we are -- have indeed started that bear market. I'm not going to have a better idea for another several months. Now, what do I tell my clients and anybody who is not exactly into risk at this point in their life, I've been telling them that you should be raising cash. And I've been saying this to them since the top back in 2021.

And then again on the rally back to 4,600, my analysis has told them, look, it's time to raise cash from a long-term perspective. If the market gives us the better inkling that is going to go back to a higher high and if you still choose, you can always get back in. But for now, the market is at a point where, you know, bigger issues seem to be coming up on the horizon. Now, again, could we get that that mini crash from, you know, let's say wherever we top now down to 28 – 2,700 to 3,000, the market will likely rally back after that in a multiyear rally back to 4,300 to 4,600.

That probably will be the last opportunity investors will have to divest before we start looking for much lower levels, like 1,800 to 2,200. And I'm even afraid to say where the depth of this long-term bear market could take us. It could take us all the way down as deep as 1,000 on the S&P 500. And I know that'll probably, people will probably say that that's just not possible. Well, I'll give you another example of, you know, when I first came on to Seeking Alpha, it was around the time where gold was going through a parabolic rally in 2011.

Well, I'll give you another example of, you know, when I first came on to Seeking Alpha, it was around the time where gold was going through a parabolic rally in 2011.

And I wrote an article outlining gold, my expectation for gold to top. And this is during the parabolic rally that I outlined for it to top at 1915 with my calculated target or 1916. And at the time, people thought I was crazy. Because everybody at the time were arguing not about where we’re going to top, but how far through 2,000 it was going to go. So people thought I was crazy. Even before it topped, I said, I think gold can not only top at 1915, I think it can drop down to the 1000 range.

And I have to tell you I was almost laughed off of Seeking Alpha when I wrote that. As we now know, gold topped at 1921. I was off by 6 bucks on that, and I think we bottomed at 1050. So, you know, the analysis that we do, especially on the longer term degrees, usually winds up being quite accurate. So while it may sound unbelievable at this time, I can assure you it is not. And I wish, I pray that I'm wrong in my analysis, but I can tell you that once we hit the top and once we confirm that we've hit a long-term top in the market, that's what I fear.