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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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From: OldAIMGuy1/6/2025 11:27:22 AM
1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Zen Dollar Round

   of 18927
 
At a glance, we aren't seeing much change in either market risk indicator, but both have relaxed a bit recently. Even so, neither are suggesting we 2nd mortgage the house and go heavily into speculative stocks. Just look back to the 2022 market lows and market risk lows to see when there were better values.

"Attention Shoppers! Wait for Better Deals!"

The v-Wave was unchanged for the week with both components hovering around the cautionary level. 3-5 Year shows 33% cash suggested while the 18 month shows 41% cash, both for diversified portfolios.

SignalPoint's MRI dropped a point to 35% cash suggested for the intermediate term for diversified portfolios. Here's the full 3 year look-back.

2024's year end activity with tax planning and future betting is now done, We'll have to watch to see what happens next. I note that 8 of the top 41 "Best Performers" in Value Line for the last 13 weeks are up over 100%. It speaks of some speculative excess. For instance, Astera Labs (ALAB) has shot up from under $40/share to over $145/share since the end of July, 2024.
schrts.co
This relatively new public company is currently a darling. Value Line suggests its 3-5 year price range should be $80 to around $130. It appears to be moving upward on some A.I. speculation. However, with a Price/Book Value of nearly 80, even with earnings this stock seems like it's a bit overcooked. Here's the top 8 performing stocks in Value Line for the latest 13 weeks:
Astera Labs (ALAB) +160.0%
App Lovin Corp (APP) +156.9%
Reddit (RDDT) +151.1%
Lemonade (LMND) +132.1%
Credo Technology (CRDO) +126.0%
Bloom Energy (BE) +113.2%
Rubrik Inc (RBRK) +112.3%
Palantir Technology (PLTR) +107.5%
If you owned any of these stocks for the latest 13 weeks, congratulations on winning the Stock Market Lotto! Check your gains against your risk tolerance and adjust accordingly.

In the meantime, my stodgy U.S. Sector ETF portfolio posted a nice year in 2024. Both equity and cash values grew nicely during the year. The Cash side of this account grew by 73% in dollars and improved its ratio from just 12% of portfolio value to its current 18%. Dollars at risk in the market only increased 5% during the previous 12 months.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....
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