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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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From: OldAIMGuy	7/29/2025 10:17:34 AM
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Two of the Market Risk Indicators remain in their cautionary territory - the Relative Valuation Index and the Speculation Index. These two overwhelm the other two which are currently neutral. Even so, the MRI didn't rise this week in risk profile and remains at 35% suggested cash for diversified portfolios. The MRI Oscillator, which suggests risk pressure, shows up at +5, a little less than last week's +7. Clearly the trend hasn't been one that should have investors relaxed. Here's what the Speculation Index looks like right now: As quickly as money exited the markets back in March/April, that money moved very quickly back to equities. Is it "too much, too fast?" It now takes a company's stock over a 92% gain in the latest 13 weeks to make Value Line's "Best Performers" list. Compare that to the loss of just 16% over the same time frame for a stock to be on the "Worst Performers" list. We see the imbalance with the Speculation Index histogram. The v-Wave is at its cautionary threshold but has stabilized for now. With a busy earnings report week this week, maybe we'll have news that will soften these cautionary indicators. That remains to be seen. Trade talks over the weekend sounded okay, but this AM the markets are a bit soft. Maybe tariff talks don't have the driving force they did back in March/April of this year. As always, we'll be watching to see how the markets do this week. Last week we saw the Emerging Markets and other international ETFs rise a bit more. That prompted an inventory reduction in the DEM sleeve of 5% of shares. The old saying is, "Plan the Trade, then Trade the Plan." Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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