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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Gary E who wrote (20115)	4/4/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: coug	of 44573

Hal, From my experience pure TA only works during market hours (whatever the market you are trading)..In regards to the S&P, which used to be from 9:30-4:00 EST (globex sessions are changing that now though, because they reflect world wide market and fundamental conditions.. They are starting to act as a "transition" from overseas to our own and therefore making markets truly global. Anyway, I wait for least 30 mins to start to see how the markets "digest" any news.. IMO most reactions to major news events is overdone on a short term basis but is right in the longer term..ie.AG's unexpected rate decrease last fall.. TA can't IMO foretell this. Once a person gets an idea which way the wind is blowing, the favorite, standard TA indicators that person uses will kick into gear and start to be useful for direction.. But even, these can be thrown for a loop, like again last fall when AG lowered rates unexpectably.. Thats also why a lot of traders get flat ahead of announcements where the outcome is unknown... Thats why I don't buy into "optimizing through backtesting" when it relates to pure performance or "hard numbers" of a system, ie.wins/losses, net gains,drawdowns, etc.. these can be optimized after the fact to take into account the "unexpected news events" but will not work going forward. I only backtest with "loose optimization" to get general ideas what "Intraday patterns of indicators" look like.. Good luck in your new trading endeavor.. Coug

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