BTW, my 25 A/D line stands at 1803, negative that is. Whatever....
The pivot points Gordon teaches did remind me of wave counts and at that point I got scared and about quit the course...but I hung in there. The basic premise is that intermediate term moves of a few months usually lay out in 5 pivots, sometimes 3 and sometimes 7. The starting point is pivot 0 and then you go from there. It appears to me that a fork drawn pivot 0, through pivot 3 and pivot 4 is the best indicator for where pivot five is, but the 0,1,2 fork is not always real telling for pivot 3. The middle tine normally hits the pivots. Within these moves there can be broken down more pivots, so it is similar to ewave from that respect.
For example, and I was going to link this, but cannot find one quickly, well this one I found, but it isn't very good...
fyii.net
...you really need a daily to see it better. The move down from OCT can count five pivots. Using the low around the first week of Jan as pivot 3, the high around the last week of Jan as pivot 4 and the low around the end of Feb as pivot 5 you can draw a 3,4,5 fork that should lead to the next new pivot point 1. Bonds are at that pivot and should retrace now. If they bust through that middle tine it represents a strong move and they should reach the upper tine. For now, bonds are sell in the 123'16 area, with risk to 123'20 or so...my guesswork on the risk level.
The FIB lines are nothing more than a measurement from the middle tine to the upper and lower tines, .38 of that distance is the FIB line drawn from the middle tine. It is amazing how often overshoots are contained by that line. This is not something I learned from Gordon.
Gordon is now teaching me action/reaction as taught by Andrews. I believe the originator was Babson and that is why they are called Babson lines. I have taken a short break from the course just as we got into these so I am not very proficient at them at this juncture, but it is quite amazing how price reacts off of them.
The basic theory is to find a line where price reacts on several points. Then draw a parallel to that line, again where price reacts. Now draw a third line on the opposite side the same distance as the other two. Price should react to the third as well.
Gordon notes that these lines are more difficult to find but once found they are real gems. You can draw in several places before finding what appears to be the current action/reaction mix.
I have not looked at your fork you mentioned yet, but I see 1360 SPX as the turning point for a correction downward...but not much of one. The move yesterday has put my count solidly in the bullish camp and I am not sure where we are going, but it is much higher.
Blow off in progress....all aboard.
-scott |
