1-DAY, short term probably, probably $19 to $20 before it bounces back to the $21-$23, mid term (about three months), I would shoot for $15-$16 which should really hold. However, upon forced conversion, if not enough warrants were converted before, you often get retracement all the way to the conversion rate, so I have an "outside target" of $13. Now, if their next earning reports starts to show that their burn rate is getting out of control (they moved to a new spiffy facility, and that might hit burn rate because, at least initially such moves are costly and probably, the facilities might be more than required short term), you may get real disappointment and I do not know how far down it will go. I doubt that a current realistic scenario should count on a retrenchment deeper than to the $15 -$16 area. Of course, to counteract such a trend, we are going to get periodic announcements of pending contracts to support the stock during the decline. Mind you, it is not a "bad" company, it is just over priced, IMHO, for the target market they are hoping to serve and for "where they seem" to be in that process.
Zeev |
