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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (28325)7/21/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin   of 44573
 
All the scan would do, for me anyway, would improve (possibly) the reliability of the stats.

To go back to what you said originally, Chartists look as an Outside <whatever> as a reversal.

Now, I look and say that a 3 week run in the DJIA has a 50/50 shot at going 4 weeks. Not exactly a stat that gives me much, with the possible exception of looking to see just how often it happens (not very).

So what I was driving at was, given the likelihood that an Outside Week causes a Reversal in, say, 86% of the cases, then when there is no Outside Reversal I might find that there is now a 62% or better probability that the DJIA will continue on to a 4th consecutive Positive Week.

It's just one piece of data, of course, but each of us (for the most part) relies on several pieces of information to try to divine direction.
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