J.T.
Lower! Much lower for what it's worth...
The only caveat would be that, if tech stocks (through some miracle of creative accounting) were to rebound to verifiable growth rates approaching the growth rates that tech stocks claimed during the bubble years, then and only then, might we see very appreciable gains in the major indices. ( I don't really believe that growth was as glorious as stated during the bubble years. I think it was artificially goosed by aggressive creative accounting methods.) As it stands now, I think the recent tech growth is attributable to inventory replenishment, not consumer or end user sales growth. Consumer debt and the end of tapping into home equity, combined with job losses will eventually cap any growth in consumer spending, though consumer spending will remain at an acceptable level. And I think the markets will remain bifurcated, with consumer durable and non-durables performing acceptably and most techs (biotech could go either way) remaining in deep bear conditions. Or looking at it from a different perspective, business to consumer stocks will remain stable, while business to business stocks remain troubled.
Regarding bonds, in my entire life, this is the first time ever that I can remember commercial debt carrying risk levels that I perceive as being equal to (or greater than for some companies) equity risk levels. I think that a fair number of bankruptcies are on the horizon, as I don't see how some of these firms will ever repay enormous debts with ever shrinking revenues. And treasuries carry some degree of risk, given their current levels and the likelihood that the Fed will eventually raise the rates higher, whether 6 months or 2 years from now.
But what do I know...
KJC
PS - I realize it's past the closing time for your poll, but that's my two cents worth anyway... |
