Hi, pls cool down a bit...:)
I just logged on and read your analysis and appreciate the insight,
and I hope more people like you can give intelligent inputs.
but I am sure others like me have many other things to do
like working, eating etc instead surfing on SI all day,
so pls no name calling if you have a higher IQ as you do obviously,
ok?
RE: "Well Dell's trailing EPS growth rate is 99%. No sign
of significant slowdown..."
If you read my first post about comparison to MU, I said
MU has more than 100% up till 1995. No significance in that
since past performance is not indicative of future results.
You mentioned about 30%-45%. I disagree with this projection
as I feel this business is simply commodity. DELL's secret
of success I repeat is not a moat like that Microsoft has
over Operating system. I am not convinced DELL is THE
desktop in the world. It takes a temporary lead becaues
its efficient direct distribution provide a low cose edge.
And good companies like Compaq and IBM can learn in time.
In effect by then DELL will be in trouble because Compaq
dominate in the high profit margin, high end servers, and
IBM (or Toshiba?) has the high profit margin portables.
These area command higher profit margin because they have
higher technology content. (Pls, tech gurus correct me if
I am wrong)
IMHO, Your PE multiples are good for evaluating Coke like
predictable companies, but not for PC sector which
I believe is cyclicle. So 3-5 year projection is not reliable.
I think even next year is hard to tell (remember the IS budget
for Y2K?).
Just my 2cents
regards, Keith
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