I am at
Cash 40.36% (CAD, AUD, Euro USD)
Metal 19.29% (physical and paper = highest watermark point ever)
Bonds 1.79%
Real Estate 25.91%
Equity 12.65% (67% energy, 11% uranium mining, 6% gold & platinum, 30% currency etf, 14% short)
<<Tradeable goods are stable in price>> ... dunno, because i buy houses and the labour that goes into Swiss platinum watches, etc, and believe prices have gone unreasonable.
<<Buying into HK real estate at this point means that you are fairly optimistic about the future, in spite of all your doomsday talk :-)>>
... I am bullish on a particular gentrifying neighborhood in HK near where a lot of people and our government are spending money, I am bearish on HK currency, and I am sure Freedom HK will extract outsiders with their money in toll.
<<There will be no Malthusian catastrophe>> ... and should there be so, my partners and I can always move into the gold bunker and use the ground floor shop as the basis for a noodle shop.
<<Renewable energy can almost compete with oil at last year's highs, so there will be no catastrophe due to energy shortages>>
... at some point folks will have to decide whether they will have expensive food or expensive conventional carbon energy.
<<The earth's population is rapidly reaching a plateau and will start declining within a generation or so. It is surprising how rapidly fertility rates drop as countries rise above the extreme low income threshold>>
... i think inflation, dwindling resources, poisons in air / water, and declining family values all contributes to the lowering of fertility rate => meaning we might well surge into disaster soon, or, rather, the recognition of disaster.
<<In the medium term we will have trouble ... some painful reflection>>
... must define 'some' and 'reflection', relative to 1929-1939 ;0/
<<the world will adopt the right policies to keep the gravy train running for another generation or two>>
... may not be until we survive an interim war cycle.
chugs, j |
