Gartner's 2005 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies ...
... shows 802.16 2004 WiMAX progressing through the cycle:
out-law.com
It has made it past the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" and is headed for the "Trough of Disillusionment" with the Plateau of Productivity" still two to five years away.
A year ago MCI published a very good whitepaper overview of WiMax and on page 8 it showed "Gartner Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking, 2004" and it showed 802.16 2004 WiMAX at the very "Peak of Inflated Expectations" with 802.16e Mobile WiMAX just starting to ascend the slope from the "Technology Trigger" to that peak ...
global.mci.com
The completion of 802.16e Mobile WiMAX (or 802.16 2005) will be an important milestone, but as you say, it may not complete this year, and I think that ther5e will be reluctance to implement even certified 02.16 2004 WiMAX kit unless there is some assurance it will be upgradable to 802.16e with SOFDMA -- ideally as a software upgrade.
My favorite quote on the subject is this one from Adlane Fellah, of Maravedis Inc.
Wireless broadband is clearly at a crossroads. Convergence is taking place between the technology road maps of WiMAX/802.16 and advanced 3GPP, 3.5G-4G cellular systems. These technologies are on a collision course and will provide similar bandwidth and significant market overlap by 2010.
There is a lot to yet play out.
Gartner's Hype Cycle Model Follows Five Stages:
Technology Trigger: A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest.
Peak of Inflated Expectations: During this phase of over enthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only companies making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers.
Trough of Disillusionment: Because the technology does not live up to its over-inflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales.
Slope of Enlightenment: Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process.
Plateau of Productivity: The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the reduced levels of risk, and the rapid growth phase of adoption begins.
out-law.com
Best,
- Eric - |
