MELT-UP or MELT-DOWN: Cast your Vote Message Board

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Pastimes : MELT-UP or MELT-DOWN: Cast your Vote

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To: J.T. who wrote (1)	4/27/2002 4:34:29 PM
From: marginmike	of 361

I would like to add 1)COT shorting heavilly 2)OEX breaking longterm suport 3)Bond yields not going up 4)spreads not closing 5)Bill gross feels a huge wave of defaults is coming in 6 months 6)Argintina contacion will infect others 7)War with Iraq will stifle consumer as it did ni 90-91 8)Any increase in Rates will suficate any recovery by encoumbering our govt, Consumers and Corporations. As a caveat To my lower prediction I would like to say that I Believe we have yet to test or form a real bottom, thus this market at some point will close at lower levels then where it is now, In my opinion at least 10-20% lower. Once we hit those levels we will retrace 20-30% and build a trading range. Ie if we crash tomorrow we could concievably recover by october and be up marginally. I dont think we will see naz 2200 or higher for many years, but after the final washout and basing period the seeds of the next bull will be planted, as in 1932 it will be a great buying opp for a generation. However there is still much pain to endure.

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