I've also been wrestling with the question of when to buy more WCOM. I already own a huge chunk at 32, but I feel that this company has a long way to run before growth stalls. I'm looking for the right entry point.
From a TA perspective, the stock doesn't appear ready to break out for another month or so. The 50 DMA is still below the 200 DMA, and won't cross above the 200 DMA (assuming that WCOM holds above 84-85) until near the end of the year. I won't buy more until and unless that happens, because otherwise any break out would be prone to failure. Until then, I suspect that WCOM will stay in a range between the 200 DMA (which is now about 84ish, but slowly rising) and 92 (the peak of the recent run). Once the moving averages cross, I'll wait for volume to dry up, and then I'll load up the truck. Once we break 92-95 on volume, I expect a run to about 140 (obviously, all these numbers are pre-split). That is my target by year-end 2000.
Finally, I'm not focusing on the regulatory issues with the FON merger for two reasons. First, I believe the stock will start to move long before the result is clear to me, which is what happened with the MCI merger. Anyway, I don't expect the regulators to step in the way of a merger that will allow an American company to compete against the international giants. I expect any concessions to have little effect on operations (e.g. divesting FON's backbone, and perhaps requiring minimum investments in MMDS, etc.).
All JMHO, of course.
RK |
