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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant?
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To: Mephisto who wrote (684)8/26/1996 3:27:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed   of 4697
 
Mephisto: I am not sure if my historical data are correct, but I believe that in the last 20 years not a single slow down in the semi business actually resulted in year over year smaller sales. A slow down in the semi is when the growth rate is under 5% for a full year. This time we have, I believe a continuous streak of 8 months of sub 1 BB. This may mean that the sales year to year is actually declining. Mind, you however, this does not mean unit shipments is lower. The main reason for the sub 1 BB is the major price collapse of the dram market (it used to be 60% of semi shipments, with the present year over year decline of more than 50% in dram prices, it is probably lower than that). Under usual circumstances, the decline in foot print per device (I should say per function since specific dies contain that many miore functions) is amply compensated by the robust increase in dies shiped. What I was saying is that there is an outside possibility that for a short time we get a cross over whereby the increase of unit shipped (at lower prices) is not sufficient to compensate for the decline in footprint of dies.

FERO has lost some 30% of its value in the last few days (they delayed their quarterly report). It is quite possible that this is related to a weakening in demand for their pullers, which of course means that the wafer producing industry (including WFR) have delayed some shipments due to their perception of a slowing in demand or at least in the growth of that demand for wafers. All this will pas, and we may probably have a great opportunity to get WFR at basement bargain prices (right now the price is just a bargain).

Zeev

Zeev
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