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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Theories
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To: macavity who started this subject11/4/2003 9:38:58 AM
From: macavity   of 1017
 
ST Outlook PM Complex.

So far it looks like the Dollar Index - $USD - strength was a sign of real dollar strength even against GOLD - $AU.

I have closed my $AU long, or rather Mr Market stopped me out.

IT the picture is mixed.
We broke through IT_PVTLOWS but IT_MO is not yet negative.
For the stocks we are above upward-sloping EMA55 on DAILY charts.

IT_CHARTS:

	MO	PVT	PVTHIGH	PVTLOW
$XAU	BULL	BEAR	100.40  96.48
$HUI	#N/A	BEAR	223.92  212.74
$AU	#N/A	BULL	392.60  370.30
$AG	#N/A	BEAR	5.22    5.00


It is a hard call, but we are not yet BEARISH
While Gold holds above 370 there is Hope!

When IT signals are mixed, or even after they have just turned negative (as with the $SPX), if the IT_TREND (not shown) is not too strong then we can look at the ST picture.

On the ST_CHARTS we are BEAR - no questions about it.

ST_CHARTS:

	MO	PVT	PVTHIGH	PVTLOW
$XAU	BEAR	BEAR	98.36  	95.12
$HUI	BEAR	BEAR	216.16 	206.42
$AU	BEAR	BEAR	385.6  	376.3
$AG	BEAR	BEAR	5.10   	4.91


but we are ST oversold relative to the IT_TREND.
As the IT charts are mixed and the IT_TREND is still positive (stocks) to neutral (metals) .
There is still room for hope, but I am skeptical as
the Metals LT_PVTCHARTS turned bearish and did not manage to strike a new high.

So best case
i) Stocks we are witnessing a reaction to the bull trend.
ii) Metals we are witnessing consolidation (triangles) to the bull trend.

The critical levels are that the Metals should not breach their october lows - $AU=366.80; $AG=4.75 - or else the down trend is confirmed.

I will look to re-enter if ST Charts turn BULL again but will have a tight stop - basically the ST_PVTLOW rather than the IT_PVTLOW, until a new weekly high is set.

None

-macavity
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